There are 44 city council seats at stake in the Toronto municipal election. Sitting councillors are running for re-election for 37 of those seats. The common wisdom is that defeating an incumbent in a Toronto election is, if not hopeless, a daunting task. But it does happen and one need only to look at the last municipal election in Toronto to see what happens when people want change. For example, in Ward 25 Jaye Robinson defeated the incumbent, Cliff Jenkins, and in Ward 32 Mary Margaret McMahon beat Sandra Bussin. This time, across the city, new candidates for council hoping to defy the odds are knocking on doors, handing out brochures and then going back and knocking on the same doors one more time.

In Davenport’s Ward 17, Alejandra Bravo is running against Cesar Palacio again. Bravo lost very close races in 2003 and 2006 and is back for another run. Bravo said she thinks it will be a close race again this time. “There’s something in the air,” she said adding, “Voters have had enough of the Tea Party politics of the last four years.” Bravo admitted it is hard to defeat an incumbent but said voters in her ward are complaining about cuts in bus service and other cuts in services. Bravo said voters are asking why they are paying a “Scarborough subway tax” on their property tax.

In the northwest end of the city, Ward 9, Gus Cusimano is running again against long time councillor Maria Augimeri. Cusimano lost by a handful of votes in 2010. He recognized that his incumbent is well known after 31 years at city hall and noted that councillors like Augimeri “get to spend money in their ward between elections.” After coming so close to winning in 2010, less than 100 votes behind Augimeri, Cusimano spent the last four years building up his profile in the ward. “People recognize me this time,” he said. “I came so close last time and now they say they will vote for me.”

Ward 6 is in the south end of Etobicoke. Mark Grimes has been the councillor here since 2003. There are 11 candidates running against Grimes. One of them, former Toronto police spokesperson Tony Vella, believes he can beat the incumbent. He conceded that taking a run at a sitting councillor is a huge challenge but insisted that he is not wasting his time. That said it takes a lot to beat a candidate like Grimes who took 60 per cent of the vote in 2010.

One hears the same thing time and again talking to candidates running in wards with incumbent councillors. How people at the door say it is “time for a change.” Others said that they are committed to knocking on doors and selling their platforms right up to the last minute. One told me he’s lost fifteen pounds and is “a lot thinner.” But on election night the advantage in those 37 wards will be with the current councillor. The drama will be seeing how many get upset. The significance will be in the make-up of the new council who will work with the new mayor and debate the issues facing Toronto over the coming four years.

Today’s poll, this one from Mainstreet Technologies, had Tory dropping four points to 38 per cent but still nine points ahead of Doug Ford. That drop is offset by the widening gap - 11 per cent - among decided voters and Tory’s advantage jumps to a 17 point among voters who say they will vote. Anyway the poll is diced, Olivia Chow is in the low 20s. With a week to go a candidate with that kind of lead should be a shoo-in for election. For weeks now the polls have had Tory holding at around 40 per cent. Four years ago Rob Ford won the election in a walk with 45 per cent of the vote. Doug Ford said today he is getting support everywhere but his campaign has a significant amount of catching up to do.

Forum Research also released a couple of polls today - both were in the 905, Mississauga and Brampton. In Mississauga it looks like Bonnie Crombie got a boost from Mayor Hazel McCallion’s endorsement a week ago. The poll showed that 56 per cent of decided voters are now with Crombie. Steve Mahoney, the other main candidate in the race, has 31 per cent support. Until now this has been a close race – just three weeks ago Crombie and Mahoney were tied. Mahoney shows no sign of giving up. His campaign promises an announcement on Sunday of its own “major endorsements.” Forum’s Brampton poll has Linda Jeffrey holding on to her lead in that mayoral contest. Jeffrey held steady at 42 per cent. Trailing her by a full 15 points is council member, John Sanderson, at 27 per cent and Mayor Susan Fennell trails badly at 14 per cent.