If the election for mayor of Toronto was held today John Tory would walk away with the job.

A Forum Research poll released Tuesday morning has Tory 10 points ahead of Doug Ford, 43 to 33. Olivia Chow continues to trail at 20 per cent. Tory’s challenge is to hold that commanding lead for another month. That means staying out of trouble for another 20 or so debates. It means outlasting and maybe outspending the other candidates in the media ad war that is about to be unleashed. On Thursday morning you’ll be greeted by the election sign blitz. The attacks, already pointed and sometimes quite personal, will be sharpened. Both Chow and Ford will have to zero in on Tory.

In large measure Tory has staked his campaign on his SmartTrack plan and the need for a change in leadership. Chow has been hammering away at the SmartTrack plan insisting it was dreamed up on the back of a napkin. Today the first Ford radio ads were released asking “What’s the story John Tory?” One of the ads picks on SmartTrack calling it, “Another shaky idea that will cost the people more.” A woman’s voice then goes on to urge voters to support “Doug for back to basics government.”

Tory’s radio and TV ads released Sunday feature Tory front and centre. He looks straight at the camera stating the case for SmartTrack and his run for mayor. The radio ad features Tory promising that SmartTrack is doable and, well, smart. The Ford campaign opted not to use Ford’s voice in his ad. Ford’s internal pollsters may have come across the same research as Forum Research found in the poll released today. That poll reveals that among men Ford is trailing Tory by a margin of 7 points but among women the gap is almost double that at 13 per cent, 44 per cent to 31 per cent. Older voters, those over 65, are even more likely to vote for Tory by a huge margin of 22 per cent, 53 per cent to 26 per cent. It’s not surprising then that the Ford campaign opted for the “softer” tone to pitch voters on Ford’s message. To win Ford will have to lure more women and seniors into his camp to defeat Tory.

This afternoon the three top candidates for mayor took part in a debate on sports and recreation issues. It was a debate that stayed focussed on the issues. Chow came back time and again to the cost of using recreation facilities. She said recreation costs have gone up during the Ford administration and now user fees mean some in Toronto can’t afford them. Tory came back to one of his recurring rebuttals to Chow: “We can’t promise everything for free,” Tory said and then this jibe, “We live in a free world but that doesn’t mean everything is free.” Ford opted to stay out of that exchange. When Tory said the condition of public recreation facilities in Toronto is subpar Ford challenged him and defended city workers and their efforts to keep the facilities in shape.

A good part of the debate dealt on the need for private/public partnerships to increase and improve facilities. The lines were clearly drawn with Chow registering her concerns of private money’s role and Tory and Ford advocating for more private/corporate funding to get more athletic facilities in Toronto. The love-in from yesterday’s arts debate carried into this afternoon’s sports conversation. With the confrontational tone dropped from both these sessions the candidates’ passion to create a better city for Torontonians came through clearly.

The issues at tonight’s second debate sponsored by the Yonge-Bloor-Bay Association focussed on the issues at the forefront of the campaign: taxes, transportation, gridlock and affordable housing. For the most part the discussion dealt with these tough, hard-to-solve problems Toronto faces. For example, a discussion on Toronto’s land transfer tax showed the differences between the three candidates but each clearly explained their position. Tory said the money from the tax was needed. Chow wants to increase it for the very rich. Ford promised that he would begin to reduce the tax as his first measure as mayor. And, after the debate was over, Ford promised to reveal tomorrow how he will reduce the land transfer tax.

Both Ford and Tory did exchange shots at each other. And yes, it did get personal again. The candidates were asked about leadership and how a mayor should conduct him or herself. Ford defended his brother Rob and then said a “mayor should stand up for the people.” Tory said you can’t get anything done if, like Ford, you call councillors “monkeys.” Ford hit back saying, “You called me a chicken and a bully.” Chow then waded in calling out Ford on his attendance record at votes at city hall and Tory was quick to pile on. Ford wanted to address his absences but unfortunately the moderator wouldn’t give him the time to give his response.

Chow excused herself with 20 minutes to go in the debate meaning a first in this campaign - a head-to-head session between Tory and Ford. Ford shifted seats to sit next to Tory but there were no fireworks. The two agreed on not making emergency services an essential in Toronto. Then they agreed that there are too many managers at city hall, and on the need to manage cost overruns on projects like the redo at Union Station. And with that another debate ended.

If you missed don’t worry - there are debates scheduled every night for the rest of the week.