Rob Ford is gaining ground on John Tory in the race for mayor while Olivia Chow has fallen out of the top two for the first time since announcing her candidacy, according to a new poll by Forum Research.

The random telephone poll of 1,945 Torontonians determined that Tory would get 36 per cent of the vote in a three-way race with Ford at 31 per cent and Chow at 26 per cent. Seven per cent of respondents said they were undecided.

In a four-way race with former budget chief and relative longshot David Soknacki included, Tory would get 34 per cent of the vote with Ford at 31 per cent, Chow at 23 per cent and Soknacki at four per cent.

In the four-way scenario, Ford was up four points from a similar poll two weeks ago while Tory and Soknacki were down one point and Chow was down two points. In the three-way scenario, Ford was up one point and Tory and Chow were both down two points.

The result represents a significant turnaround for Ford, who had lagged in third place for months amid a myriad of scandals around his substance abuse and alleged association with the criminal element.

At one point in June while away in rehab Ford's support dropped to a low of 20 per cent, putting him a staggering 18 points behind Chow.

"Well, it looks like Rob Ford is on the comeback trail, and although John Tory still has the lead, it is narrowing,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said in a press release accompanying the poll. “Olivia Chow, on the other hand, is suffering from a different kind of over-exposure. She was introduced to the public too long before she entered the race and has already peaked. With her timing, the election should have been in June."

Stinz supporters shift to Ford, Tory

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday and is the first look at voter intentions since former TTC Chair Karen Stintz dropped out of the race.

Among respondents who previously intended to vote for Stintz, 30 per cent said they would shift their support to Ford while 27 per cent backed Tory and 24 per cent sided with Chow.

“People predicted Ford wouldn’t get any of the Stintz vote, especially because of the controversy between the two of them, but in the end he got his share of her supporters,” Bozinoff told CP24. “Her supporters were up for grabs and he got his fair share.”

Though the poll is largely a good news story for Ford, it also shows that the mayor has some work left to with two months until Torontonians head to the polls.

Ford continues to be very polarizing with just 39 per cent of respondents saying they approve of him (up four points) compared to 63 per cent for Tory (down four points), 49 per cent for Chow (down three points) and 48 per cent for Soknacki (up two points).

The mayor's campaign manager Doug Ford was asked about the results Thursday morning, but declined comment, noting that the "only poll that matters is on election day."

Meanwhile, Olivia Chow seemed to welcome her sudden status as an underdog in an interview with CP24.

“I’ve been an underdog before and I’ve won eight elections and I can’t wait for the real campaign to start after labour day," she said.

The poll is considered accurate to within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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