Former NDP MP Olivia Chow would be favoured to reclaim her seat in Parliament if she decides to run in the upcoming federal election, according to a new poll.
The Mainstreet Research telephone poll of 606 residents in the downtown riding of Spadina-Fort York found that Chow has the support of 36 per cent of respondents compared to 30 per cent for Liberal MP Adam Vaughan and 12 per cent for the yet-to-be nominated Conservative candidate.
Among decided voters, Chow enjoyed an event bigger lead with the support of 44 per cent of respondents compared to 36 per cent for Vaughan and 14 per cent for the yet-to-be nominated Conservative candidate.
Spadina-Fort York is a new federal riding that includes parts of Chow's old Trinity-Spadina ward and Toronto centre.
The release of the poll comes two days after Chow told CP24 that it is “possible” that she will decide to run in the area that she represented for eight years.
“I am happy teaching, but there are some things that really bother me like Bill C51,” Chow, who left Parliament to run for mayor, said at the city’s annual pride parade. “It’s possible.”
The poll, which was conducted on Saturday before Chow made her comments to CP24, found that the former MP enjoys particularly strong levels of support among those aged 50 to 64 (41) per cent and seniors (42 per cent). Chow also polled better among women (38 per cent) than men (35 per cent).
Meanwhile, Vaughan’s numbers were relatively consistent with only a six point range among the different age groups. Overall the former city councillor was strongest among those 50 to 64 (33 per cent) and weakest among those 18 to 34 (27 per cent).
"To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it's deja vu all over again for Olivia Chow. Early scenario polls prior to the 2014 municipal election in Toronto had her leading and these results are similar. Whether Ms. Chow runs for MP is yet to be determined and whether she could maintain similar numbers through the election in October is another question”, Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi said in a press release. "At this point, with a little under four months until the election, it looks like a Chow run in her old riding would help the NDP. If she decides to run for the NDP, the race for Spadina-Fort York becomes one to watch between two well known, well liked political heavyweights.”
Vaughan has represented the riding since winning a byelection to succeed Chow last summer.
The poll is considered accurate to within 3.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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