Most of the GTHA will be designated as a red zone in the province’s tiered framework for COVID-19 restrictions following a decision by the Ford government to lower the thresholds for moving regions into the more restrictive category.

Premier Doug Ford has announced that Halton, York and Hamilton will be joining Toronto and Peel in the red zone as of 12:01 a.m. Monday.

Peel was previously moved into the red zone last week amid a surge in cases there.

Toronto, meanwhile, is scheduled to enter the red zone at 12:01 a.m. tomorrow, albeit with additional restrictions imposed by Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa.

What zone does your region fall in? Follow this link.

The addition of three more regions by next week comes after the Progressive Conservative government decided to lower the criteria for inclusion in each of the colour-coded tiers following widespread criticism from epidemiologists, public health experts and the Ontario Medical Association.

Whereas before it required that regions have a weekly incidence rate of 100 new cases per 100,000 people or a positivity rate north of 10 per cent to be designated as red zones, it will now set the bar at a weekly incident rate of 40 new cases per 100,000 people and a positivity rate of more than 2.5 per cent.

The changes bring the criteria in line with what was first proposed as part of an earlier version of the framework that was obtained by CTV News Toronto on Thursday.

As part of the change, the province is also updating its advice to residents in red zones and is now urging them to only leave their homes for “essential reasons,” such as work, school and exercise.

“I know this will be difficult but we need to be clear about what is at stake. We are staring down the barrel of another lockdown and I will not hesitate for a second if we have to go further because our number one priority right now is getting these numbers down,” Ford said in making the announcement.

Ford had defended the framework as recently Thursday, telling reporters that he merely took the advice of Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams in setting the indicators.

That, however, was before the release of new modelling which warned that the province could see 6,500 daily cases of COVID-19 by mid-December without new measures to limit the spread of the virus.

“The modelling that I see now is not the modelling that I saw nine days ago. Nine days, ten days ago what I saw was anywhere from 950 to 1200 cases,” Ford said on Friday. “I can assure you that if I saw 6,500 cases 10 days ago I wouldn’t be out here today saying what we are saying.”

Ford

Regions can still impose their own restrictions

The red category allows for indoor dining at bars and restaurants but with early closures and a strict capacity limit of 10 people indoors. It also limits capacity in gyms to 10 people inside and prohibits movie theatres from operating.

There is technically one additional category in the framework that is even more stringent – the grey “lockdown” category – but Williams said on Friday that works still needs to be done to determine what a lockdown at this point might look like and what would trigger it.

“The question is what would the lockdown consist of? Does it consist of closing certain aspects (of the economy) or all aspects? Does it consist of closing schools? What do you do with long-term care visitation?” he said. “It will not be a light decision at all. It is one that has to be weighed out.”

Ford has previously spoken of a need to ensure that there is “a balance” with public health restrictions that also keeps the health of the broader economy in mind.

But on Friday, he said that “everything is on the table,” including the possibility of an order to close non-essential businesses as was the case in the spring.

“When I get the green light and Dr. Williams says the (health) table has come back and they want a lockdown I will lockdown quicker than you can blink your eyes because my number one priority is to protect the safety of every single person in Ontario,” he said. “I won’t hesitate for a heartbeat to do it.”

In total 14 regions are moving into more restrictive category, including Durham which will now be placed into the orange zone.

While the framework lays out minimum restrictions, it should be noted that individual medical officers of health can still impose additional restrictions.

In Toronto, for example, de Villa has ordered the suspension of indoor dining at bars and restaurants for at least 28 days, has prohibited casinos, bingo halls and meeting spaces from operating and has banned fitness and exercise classes.

“Premier Ford has said that everything is on the table and we are going to be sitting down with our own public health people and talking with the province over the course of the weekend to see what else we should be doing in light of the fact that the numbers are getting worse and not better,” Toronto Mayor John Tory told CP24 on Friday afternoon.

Tory said that while “nobody wants” to order the closure of some businesses, he is willing to “take any action that is necessary” to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Other GTHA mayors that spoke with CP24 on Friday, however, expressed hope that a full lockdown can be avoided.

“I was glad to see that there wasn’t a closure of businesses, businesses are still staying open but the onus is on us. It is what we do. We have to stop inviting people into our homes that don’t belong to our family and ensure that we are taking all the necessary precautions when we go out,” Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti said. “I think the key message today is that it is all up to us. What are we prepared to do so we can avoid a lockdown?”

“Our residents are facing a mandatory lockdown shutdown if we don’t get our numbers under control,” Oakville Mayor Rob Burton added. “During the first wave we got our reproduction number down below one and we can do it again but we have to observe the advice of the public health people.”