Expo 2025 bid garners wide support but city staff says it's risky

More than half of GTA residents and Canadians across the country want to bring Expo 2025 to Toronto, a new poll suggests, but city staff says there are plenty of reasons to say no.

The endeavor would be expensive and necessary development plans wouldn’t meet deadlines, city staff says, but some councilors say they agree with residents, that an expo would be worth the cost and the hassle.

Expo events take place every five years around a particular theme to showcase innovation. Expo 2015 was held in Milan, Italy around the theme “Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life.” Expo 2020 will take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates around the theme of “Connecting Minds, Creating the Future.”

The idea behind the event stretches back to the late 1800s, where countries would host “world’s fairs” that demonstrated the latest innovations in transportation, architecture and communications technology.

A report prepared by Toronto city staff says Expo could add $3.3 billion to Toronto’s GDP and draw as many as nine million visitors.

But the report, which includes a feasibility study prepared by outside consultants, also says hosting Expo would require as much as $6 to $7 billion in public funds for capital projects, including transit.

They also say it is unlikely the city’s Port Lands could be made ready to host the Expo in time for 2025. The area requires a significant flood protection program, more utilities servicing and the reconfiguration of the eastern portion of the Gardiner Expressway to be ready.

Coun. Krystyn Wong-Tam, a supporter of the expo, said hosting the Expo could serve as a springboard for developing the long under-utilized Port Lands.

“For 63 years that land has sat largely fallow and undeveloped,” Wong-Tam said. “There is no reason we couldn’t flood-proof that land in time.”

The report also suggests the short timeline for completing projects ahead of 2025 increases the risk of “significant cost overruns.”

“Given these factors, the city cannot responsibly pursue a bid for the 2025 World Expo at this time without facing very significant financial, operational and reputational risks,” the report says.

In a poll conducted on Aug. 29 and Sept. 1 that did not outline the concerns of the report, 56 per cent of GTA respondents to an online poll conducted by Hill+Knowlton Strategies said they want Canada to bid on bringing the world fair to Toronto in 2025.

Only 15 per cent of respondents opposed making a bid, while 27 per cent said they were not sure of their position yet and would require more information.

Asking the same question across Canada, 55 per cent of respondents said they supported a bid, while 10 per cent said they opposed it and 32 per cent said they were not sure.

The poll reached 1301 adult respondents, 483 of whom reside in the GTA.

As an online-only poll, it has a credibility interval rather than a margin of error. It was 3.1 per cent nationwide and 5.1 per cent inside the GTA. The sample of respondents was weighted against census figures to achieve a representative sample according to age and gender.

A credibility interval is different than a margin of error as an online poll by definition excludes those without internet access and respondents are not chosen at random.

Wong-Tam called the poll results “very encouraging” but there is another hurdle to the plans – this time involving the federal government.

This hurdle Toronto dates back to 2013, when the federal government under Stephen Harper stopped paying a $25,000 annual membership fee to the International Bureau of Expositions, a Paris-based international organization which evaluates and awards bids to host expos.

“(Bureau) rules prioritize bids from member countries over non-members, and until such time as the federal government renews Canada’s membership, Toronto will be unlikely to succeed in a bid to host Expo 2025,” the report says.

Toronto Mayor John Tory has said he would only support a bid if the province and the federal government offer significant funds for the effort.

Deputy Mayor Denzil Minnan-Wong said the city couldn’t possibly pay for the Expo on its own.

“Council has taken a decision on such projects that without support from the federal and provincial governments we can’t afford to pay for this on our own, and we can’t.”

In a letter, the Trudeau government said this spring it would explore “next steps” with the city if council indicated it supported a bid.

City staff says preparing a bid would cost the city between $10- and $15-million.

The city’s executive committee will discuss whether to go forward with a bid at a meeting scheduled for Oct. 26.

Manchester, England, Tokyo and Paris are also considering whether to bid on Expo 2025.