A number of current city councillors are in danger of being unseated as Torontonians get set to cast their ballots on Monday, a new poll has found.

Forum Research looked at 27 notable races across the city, determining that several incumbents appear headed for defeat while a number of others will have a dog fight on their hands to hold on to their seats.

In Ward 18 Davenport, lawyer Alex Mazer has the support of 42 per cent of respondents compared to 33 per cent for incumbent Ana Bailao.

Meanwhile, in Ward 26, Don Valley West businessman John Burnside also appears poised to knockoff an incumbent with 32 per cent of the vote compared to 14 per cent for two-term councillor John Parker.

A long-time councillor could also be headed for defeat in Ward 6 Etobicoke Lakeshore, where non-profit executive Russ Ford (35 per cent) has a five-point lead over three-term councillor Mark Grimes.

It should be noted, however, that the ward-by-ward polls had sample sizes in the low hundreds and thus a higher margin of error — between five and 10 per cent depending on the ward.

“These are small sample sizes in these polls, but they can teach us a lot; one, that incumbency is critical, and that in open races, name recognition is just as critical. Those few councillors facing upsets are those who have not tended their brands well,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said in a press release accompanying the poll.

In addition to the three wards where an incumbent trails, the Forum Research poll also highlighted several parts of the city where the current councillor is in a tight race.

In Ward 7 York West, outspoken incumbent Girogio Mammolitti has the support of 33 per cent of respondents compared to 25 per cent for businessman Nick Di Nizio with 25 per cent of respondents still undecided.

In Ward 9, York Centre, incumbent Maria Augimeri (32 per cent) also has a battle on her hands, leading businessman Gus Cusimano by just eight points with 20 per cent undecided.

Meanwhile, in a crowded field in Ward 17 Davenport Cesar Palacio has the support of 29 per cent of respondents compared to 22 per cent for George Stevens, 15 per cent for Alejandro Bravo and 12 per cent for Saeed Selvam.

Mayor Ford leads in Ward 2

While the poll identified a number of close races, it also singled out a handful of wards where the result could be lopsided.

In Ward 2 Etobicoke North Mayor Ford appears poised to regain the seat he represented for 10 years, with the support of 45 per cent of respondents compared to 15 per cent for Andray Domise and 14 per cent for Munira Abukar.

At the opposite end of the political spectrum, Ward 21 St Paul’s councillor Joe Mihevc also appears poised for a big win with 59 per cent of the vote compared to 6 per cent for his nearest challenger.

In Ward 22 St Paul’s, Josh Matlow is similarly way ahead with 59 per cent of the vote compared to four per cent for his nearest challenger.

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