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Predictions for winter weather still a 'crapshoot'

cp24.com

While the traditional Farmers' Almanac is predicting a brutal winter for Canada, an Environment Canada specialist says seasonal predictions can be a "crapshoot."

Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips says there's no science behind the Farmers' Almanac predictions, but admits his group's predictions are sometimes not any better.

The Farmers' Alamnac is predicting -40 degree Celsius weather and heavy snow for the eastern half of the country.

While Environment Canada's winter predictions don't come out until Dec. 1, its second round of seasonal predictions are due out next week.

Phillips says his organization uses technology to make a seasonal prediction based on sea surface temperatures, ice and snow conditions and soil conditions for 10 days before giving a forecast for an upcoming season.

Meanwhile, the Almanac looks at planet positions and tidal activity to predict forecasts.

Phillips, however, says a solid prediction will depend on whether or not two weather phenomena have Canada in their sights - El Niņo or La Niņa. But so far, neither is targeting the country.

That means Canada could be in line for something Phillips jokingly calls "La Nada." Nada is Spanish for "nothing."

So after a winter that saw large amounts of snowfall and a summer with heavy rainfall, the country could have a fairly neutral climate this Winter.

With files from The Canadian Press.

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