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GTA real estate market 'substantially' down nearly 50 per cent

cp24.com

A for sale sign hangs outside a GTA residence on Friday, Dec. 5, 2008. (CP24/Brian Van Binnendyk)

Only half as many homes and condominiums were sold in the GTA last month compared to November 2007, and experts say this is resulting in a market that's good for buyers, but not so great for sellers and agents.

Data released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Thursday says 3,640 real estate sales took place in November 2008, down from more than 7,000 transactions last year across the GTA.

The drop of nearly 50 per cent has been caused by a slowing economy and the new City of Toronto Land Transfer Tax, board president Maureen O'Neill says.

She also says the market has "really been shaken by what's happening globally" in the economy.

But O'Neill says a study by the CD Howe Institute estimates the new land transfer tax has cost the city's economy $170 million since it was introduced at the start of 2008.

"They figure the impact has been tremendous," O'Neill tells CP24.COM.

University of Toronto professor William Strange, who specializes in real estate, says he agrees that the land transfer tax would lead to fewer sales but it isn't the main factor behind the "substantial" decline.

"It's a big deal, but look, if it was just the land transfer tax, we'd be seeing Toronto volumes going down and non-Toronto volumes not going down," says Strange.

Toronto Budget Chief Shelley Carroll says consultants told the city to expect a sales slowdown, but it wouldn't have a major impact.

"We were told it would create a slight slowdown in sales, and that would last about six months," she says.

Sales in the 416 district are down from 3,426 in November 2007 to 1,523 this year.

Comparatively, in the 905, sales are down from 3,887 transactions in November 2007 to 2,117 sales in the same month this year.

The decrease in sales also means there's more homes to choose from compared to last year, which is good news for buyers, O'Neill says. There are currently 27,037 homes on the market, compared to 18,309 for sale during the same time last year.

"When it starts to become a buyers' market, it doesn't drive prices up," she says. "(Buyers) will be able to negotiate more."

Strange also says buyers won't have to put up with the intense bidding wars that the market has seen in the past.

"Some of these people who were unable to get really good houses can probably do that now, whereas they couldn't two or three years ago," he says.

But while the price of real estate and the speed at which they are selling has been decreasing steadily, O'Neil says people shouldn't wait to make a move to buy - or sell.

"I don't think it's worth the gamble. House prices are not sliding - they're moderating a bit. If you look at the last 10 years, they have been rising steadily.

"Where is the bottom? Who's going to blow the whistle when it bottoms out?

"I haven't got a crystal ball. I wish I did," she says.

"We'll see."


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