Ontario's Progressive Conservatives lead the Liberals and NDP in a new Nanos Research poll that asked people to rank their top two local choices ahead of next month's provincial election.

Conducted exclusively for CP24, CTV and the Globe and Mail, the poll puts the Tories and Liberals in a tight race a month before the Oct. 6 vote.

The Tories hold the lead with 35.4 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 31.9 per cent and the NDP at 22.8 per cent. The Green party finished fourth with 4.1 per cent.

The numbers get a little tighter in the Greater Toronto Area, where the Tories, at 31.2 per cent, and Liberals, at 30.8 per cent, are in a statistical tie. The NDP have 18.8 per cent of support in the GTA.

In southwestern Ontario, the Tories lead the Grits by eight percentage points.

"Neither party has broken away from the pack and built up any kind of commanding lead," Pollster Nik Nanos told CP24.

Most popular choice

While Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak enjoys a lead in most jurisdictions he is not the most popular choice for premier, according to the Nanos poll.

The poll asked people who they believed would make the best premier. Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty finished ahead of Hudak with 29.7 per cent of the vote. Hudak received 24.7 per cent support while NDP Leader Andrea Horwath had 14.6 per cent and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner had 2.8 per cent.

The poll showed an increase in the number of undecided voters from 14.6 per cent in mid August to 22.1 per cent at the beginning of September.

Nanos said attack ads have had an impact in causing some to reconsider their allegiances.

"The negative ads that both the PCs and the Liberals are running have actually repelled voters; they haven't actually attracted voters to either of those two parties," he said.

When asked to categorize their support, 49.3 per cent of respondents said it was "firm," meaning many will be making up their minds over the next month.

In a random telephone survey, Nanos Research polled 1,005 Ontarians between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1.

The poll is accurate to within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Compared with a Nanos Research poll taken in mid-August, the Tories and Liberals have lost support, while the NDP have made some gains.

"What is going to be critical in the next couple weeks is to see whether this gain is a one-off or something the NDP can hold on to," Nanos said.