October 13, Election Note

The Ford campaign is giddy about its chances. The campaign's private polling shows no slippage and none of the other three catching on with voters to provide a clear second choice. Now, obviously, this is the Ford spin and I don't know what questions are being asked but when a campaign says "it's over!" with 12 days to go that spells trouble for the other campaigns.

Today Ford goes to the Board of Trade to deliver what will probably be his last major speech of the campaign. After that look for him at the scheduled debates – Ford is committed to going to all of them – and on the sidelines coaching his high school football team. The Ford team will turn its attention to making sure it is organized to get the vote out on October 25.

George Smitherman is headed out to Etobicoke to lay out a policy to help create job growth in the inner suburbs.

At last night's debate at St. Paul's Anglican Church on Bloor St., Smitherman said it is important to create ways to find meaningful jobs for youth. It's a three-point plan that will build on what Smitherman has been saying about the need for jobs throughout this campaign.

Rocco Rossi will be at the Toronto Star today to meet with its editorial board. As I said yesterday Rossi has gotten excellent reviews from his other editorial board appearances but this one will be the most interesting. The Star is clearly backing Smitherman in this race – the Rossi camp calls it the "Smitherman Star" - and over the past days has reported various efforts to get Rossi to withdraw.

Joe Pantalone's meeting with the Sun editorial board gives him a front page quote in the paper, "MORE DANGEROUS THAN FORD" but the colour is Smitherman purple and Smitherman gets the bigger picture. At the debate last night Pantalone attacked Smitherman again and again at one point saying Smitherman shares responsibility for introduction of the HST in Ontario.. It prompted Rossi to say he didn't want to get involved in "a lover's spat between Joe and George."

Today Pantalone speaks to the Sports for Ontario luncheon and the release from the Pantalone camp says he "will speak about developing tourism, the economy, diversity, and health through his work on places like BMO Field and his plans for a world-class cricket pitch in Toronto."

At yesterday's debate, after taking a four-day break, Toronto's fab four debaters started slowly but got their rhythm back and by the end were standing, pointing fingers and shouting at each other. The loudest exchange was between frontrunners Ford and Smitherman. Smitherman kept asking Ford to tell him if he was going to cut commercial property taxes. Ford didn't answer and Smitherman repeatedly interrupted finally asking for a clear "yes or no answer." Ford then came back with his standard Smitherman attack about how a billion dollars disappeared in Ontario's e-health scandal. That brought Smitherman to his feet as he faced Ford and told him to "stop lying."

Rossi got off a few good lines too. Perhaps the most pointed was when he took on what he called Ford's changing policies saying Ford "is making up this crap as he goes along." During the debate Ford would appear to barely listen, his eyes focused on some spot on the ceiling of the hall. He repeated his vow to clean up "this filthy, dirty city."

But all those lines didn't get much attention. There isn't much coverage in the papers and only a couple of cameras and reporters attended.

It's interesting to listen to the radio ads released yesterday. Rob Ford fronts his own ads, there are three different ones. Using an upbeat music track Ford delivers a fast voice track that has none of the stammers and small stutters of his you tube policy videos. The Smitherman ad is the polar opposite. It's a professionally narrated track listing Smitherman's key policies. Both side deliver positive "vision" messages focused on their platforms.