NEW YORK (AP) ā Eight years ago, Steven Spielberg predicted that the superhero movie would one day go āthe way of the Western.ā
Spielbergās comments caused a widespread stir at the time. āAvengers: The Age of Ultronā was then one of the yearās biggest movies. The following year would bring āCaptain America: Civil War,ā āDeadpoolā and āBatman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.ā The superhero movie was in high gear, and showing no signs of slowing down.
But Spielbergās point was that nothing is forever in the movie business. These cycles, Spielberg said, āhave a finite time in popular culture.ā And the maker of āE.T.,ā āJurassic Parkā and āJawsā might know a thing or two about the ebbs and flows of pop-culture taste.
As 2023 draws to a close, no one is sounding the death knell of the superhero movie. The Walt Disney Co.'s āGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3ā made $845.6 million worldwide and Sony's āSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verseā ($691 million) was one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Marvel is still mightier than any other brand in the business.
But more than ever before, there are chinks in the armor of the superhero movie. Its dominance in popular culture is no longer quite so assured. A cycle may be turning, and a new one dawning.
For the first time in more than two decades, the top three movies at the box office didnāt include one sequel or remake: āBarbie,ā āThe Super Mario Bros. Movieā and āOppenheimer.ā The last time that happened was 2001, when āHarry Potter and the Sorcererās Stone,ā āShrekā and āMonsters, Inc.ā topped the box office.
No, itās not exactly a lineup of originality like, say, 1973, when āThe Exorcist, āThe Stingā and āAmerican Graffitiā led all movies in ticket sales. āBarbieā and āThe Super Mario Bros.,ā based on some of the most familiar brands in the world, will generate spinoffs and sequels of their own.
But itās hard not to sense a shift in moviegoing, one that might have reverberations for years to come for Hollywood.
āThereās an inflection point in 2023,ā says Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for data firm Comscore. ā Barbenheimer is just one part of that story. Audiences, they want to be challenged. I think the tried and true is not necessarily working.ā
Greta Gerwigās āBarbie,ā from Warner Bros., was the yearās runaway hit, with more than $1.4 billion in ticket sales worldwide. It was a blockbuster like none seen before: an anarchic comedy that set a string of records for a movie directed by a woman.
Nearly as unprecedented was the success of Christopher Nolanās āOppenheimer,ā a three-hour drama that nearly grossed $1 billion. As different as it and āBarbieā were, they were each original feats of cinema and personal statements by its directors.
At the same time, the Walt Disney Co.ās Marvel, a hit-making machine like none other in movie history, faltered like never before. āThe Marvelsā marked a new low for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, collecting $200 million globally. DC Studios, in the midst of a revamp, saw disappointing results for āThe Flashā and āBlue Beetleā before watching āAquaman and the Lost Kingdomā sink to a $28.1 million debut.
Both Marvel and DC have already made moves to right their ships. Bob Iger, Disney's chief executive, has called turning around Marvel his top priority. He said the superhero studio has suffered greatly from too many films and series leading to ādiluted quality.ā The James Gunn, Peter Safran-led DC, meanwhile, wonāt officially launch until 2025 with āSuperman Legacy.ā
In the meantime, something else will have to fill the void. That was a theme in 2023, too, when the writers and actors strikes marred release plans and forced the delay of several films including Warnerās āDune: Part Two,ā Sonyās next āGhostbustersā movie and MGMās āChallengers.ā
Those disruptions will continue in 2024. Analysts aren't expecting a banner year for Hollywood in part because films like the next āMission: Impossibleā film and the āSpider-Verseā sequel, both delayed by the strikes, wonāt make their original dates.
Overall ticket sales in U.S. and Canadian theaters for 2023 are expected to reach about $9 billion, according to Comscore, an improvement of about 20% from 2022. The industry is still trying to regain its pre-pandemic footing, when ticket sales regularly surpassed $11 billion. Output of wide-releases in 2023 (88) still trailed those in 2019 (108) by 18.5%.
Hollywood is still coaxing moviegoers back to theaters ā something āBarbie,ā āOppenheimerā and āMarioā went a long way to helping.
āIt reinforced something that weāve known for 100 years in the business: People like going to the shared experience out of the home,ā says Jeffrey Goldstein, distribution chief for Warner Bros. āThey love being entertained. Movies are a good financial proposition and can bring in a mass audience.ā
āIt probably started with āMarioā last April,ā adds Goldstein. āI think that showed audiences again that theaters are a fun place to be to. And it showed studios and content creators: Up your game.ā
If 2023 is any guide, hits will come from increasingly unpredictable places.
That was the case with āTaylor Swift: The Eras Tour,ā a film released just two months after Swiftās recorded concerts in a first-of-its-kind distribution deal with AMC Theatres. It grossed $250 million worldwide, and was followed by the similarly released āRenaissance: A Film by Beyoncé,ā another No. 1 debut.
More surprising was āSound of Freedom,ā a $15 million film from the independent Angel Studios, which matched Swift with $250 million worldwide. It was released with a unique āpay it forwardā program that allowed people to donate tickets.
Going into 2023, no one was betting āSound of Freedomā would outgross āThe Marvelsā or that āFive Nights at Freddy's" would have a bigger opening weekend than āIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.ā
āThere are going to be examples of big-budget, traditional blockbusters that do well,ā says Dergarabedian. āBut for every one of those, there have been two that failed. An audience thatās finding a lot of interesting material on streaming is becoming more open to films like āGodzilla Minus One,ā Indian cinema, Japanese anime. Thereās a shift in audience taste and studios need to get a handle on this.ā
That poses as much of a challenge as an opportunity to studios. If more-of-the-same no longer has quite the same appeal for moviegoers, an industry that for years has depended on sequels, prequels, reboots and remakes to make up the bulk of its profits may require new creativity.
The Western didn't vanish all at once. After two decades of ubiquity, it began going out of style in the 1960s. And the Western, of course, continues to be rich territory for filmmakers. This year, 81-year-old Martin Scorsese made his first Western in āKillers of the Flower Moon," the three-hour-plus $200 million epic from Apple Studios.
The superhero movie, likewise, won't ever die. But its heyday might have reached its endgame.