TORONTO - Arcade Fire stunned the music world by winning album of the year at the Grammys last month, but the Montreal rockers will not be cast as the plucky underdogs heading into this weekend's Junos.
No, after the band's shocking win in the Grammys' top category for their third album, "The Suburbs," they now look more like this year's Juno giants.
Most observers think the band is a shoo-in to claim album of the year at the Junos this Sunday. Heck, even the competition is giving Arcade Fire the win.
"If the Junos don't award Arcade Fire with album of the year -- especially after the Grammys giving it to them, (and) it is a great album -- I'd find that hard to believe," said Scotland-born, Toronto-bred country star Johnny Reid, who's up for four awards including, yes, album of the year.
But even if the evening's biggest prize winds up being the foregone conclusion that some analysts expect, the Junos' 40th anniversary bash will feature several other interesting storylines throughout its extended two-and-a-half-hour broadcast this Sunday (CTV, 8 p.m. ET).
Many of the evening's biggest categories feature established Juno favourites competing with relative newbies.
Group of the year, for instance, will pit critical darlings Arcade Fire and Broken Social Scene against veteran St. John's, N.L., trio Great Big Sea (who have racked up 11 career nominations but, oddly, have never won), hard-rock combo Three Days Grace and the slick, radio-ready rap-pop newcomers Down With Webster.
And then there's the 17-year-old teen-pop titan Justin Bieber, nominated four times this year. The Junos broke many a lovesick teenager's heart last year by shutting out the formerly mop-topped crooner, who still braved the stage for an acoustic performance of his ubiquitous hit, "Baby."
In the year since, he's remained atop the pop heap while (somehow) building his already enormous following and releasing a hit 3D movie. He also might have modestly increased his cred with two Grammy nominations and prominent critical plaudits from the likes of the New York Times.
But here, he'll be up against such established Canuck stars as Neil Young, Sarah McLachlan and Michael Buble.
If those competitors prove too much to overcome, Bieber -- who won't be able to attend the ceremony due to a scheduling conflict -- might at least count on a win for the Juno fan choice award, given that his army of faithful followers will surely be voting in droves.
"I feel that's the biggest award of the night," said Reid, who's also nominated. "That's the true connection between the people who buy the music and the artist.
"It's just my take on it, but I think Justin Bieber has had an incredible year. I mean, the wee man's just been unbelievable. He's everywhere. So I would find it hard to believe (if) he didn't win the fan choice award."
Yet the man of the hour could be another Grammy-nominated international sensation: Drake.
The 24-year-old Toronto rapper -- a six-time Grammy nominee -- will host the hometown hullabaloo and leads with six nominations, including nods in every major category for which he's eligible.
He won two Junos last year (for best new artist and rap recording of the year), and that was before the release of his debut LP, "Thank Me Later," which opened at No. 1 in Canada and the U.S. en route to platinum sales.
But rap artists have rarely grabbed major Juno glory. In fact, K'naan's win as artist of the year in 2010 marked the first time a hip-hopper had taken the award, and no rapper has ever won album of the year.
Could this be the year that changes?
"I don't know -- they thought that when Choclair signed his deal with 'Ice Cold,"' said Enfield, N.S., rapper Classified, who's up for single of the year for "Oh Canada."
"I think the most attention (hip hop) has ever got was when the Rascalz didn't accept their award back in the '90s."
"You always hear that thing, like, 'This year is (hip hop's) year!' And if it happens, cool. If not, we're still up here making great music and hopefully Canada can recognize that now from the shine we're getting and go look for it."
Then there are the usual head-scratching entries for genre awards that render the categories near-impossible to predict.
For instance, Polaris Music Prize winner Caribou -- a.k.a. Dan Snaith, the Dundas, Ont., composer who has been recording since 2000 -- is nominated in the new electronic album of the year category, as well as for best, um, new artist.
"For me, it's nice to still be a new artist after 10 years, so it's an opportunity to have a fresh start after that long," he said wryly over the line from England.
Meanwhile, Montreal electro-funk outfit Chromeo is nominated for dance recording of the year against the very-different likes of Niagara Falls, Ont., DJ Deadmau5 and R&B crooner Keshia Chante.
"It doesn't really seem like a good match to go up against Deadmau5, but I guess it is what it is," said Chromeo's keyboardist, P-Thugg (real name: Patrick Gemayel).
"If it was up to me, I don't think we'd be in the same category. But I guess the people have spoken, man."
The performance lineup was finalized on Wednesday, with Toronto indie-rockers Tokyo Police Club joining a lineup that includes Arcade Fire, Broken Social Scene, McLachlan, Jim Cuddy and Reid.
While well-loved icons such as Young and Twain are expected to be on hand for the show, no plans have been announced for either to take the stage, despite months of hoopla about the 40th anniversary show. Rather, the gala will rely on a more youthful, if relatively lower wattage, lineup.
A spokesman for CARAS -- which puts on the Junos -- said Twain and Young were both offered the opportunity to perform, but declined. Other big-name Canuck acts also turned the Junos down, acknowledged CARAS chairman Ed Robinson, who added he's still "very happy" with Sunday's lineup.
"We always try to do a blend of established names in Canadian music and up-and-comers, and I think this year we've managed to include a number of independent acts that are making headway in their careers and making some noise on the national and international scenes."
"What we also tried to do was to blend in more iconic names from the last 40 years, without giving up the stories of this particular year. ... I think the blend will satisfy those who are looking for marquee names, if you will. But I also think that audiences like to discover what's new. I really believe that."
And as with any award show, part of the Junos' appeal lies in the possibility for surprises.
That potential lurks even in the Junos' most seemingly predictable category: album of the year. There are plenty who believe that Arcade Fire is not, necessarily, a lock to win.
"I think there could be some backlash, maybe," said Finger Eleven guitarist Rick Jackett, whose band is up for rock album of the year for their most recent record, "Life Turns Electric."
"Maybe a lot of Bieber fans will be like: 'You know what? You won the Grammy. We're giving him the Juno.'
"I don't know, but I think it's great either way. I mean, even the fact that we can say Arcade Fire and Justin Bieber in the same sentence, it's just a good example of the diversity of the Canadian music scene."
