Voters in Brantford-Brant South will head to the polls on Dec. 7 to elect a new Member of Parliament, but the race is already raising questions about the Conservative Party’s chances of holding onto the riding.
The federal byelection was triggered by the resignation of former Conservative MP Larry Brock in September. Brock stepped down to return to his career as a Crown prosecutor.
The contest is shaping up to be an interesting one after Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis would represent the party, without holding an open nomination contest.
The decision left some local Conservatives disappointed.
“I was really hoping that we would be given the opportunity to vote in our own candidate for Brantford-Brant South,” the voter told CTV News at the time.
Dave Carroll, a pastor and longtime Conservative, says he was among those caught off guard by the announcement.
“Nobody spoke with me about it. I found out the morning before the rally happened that this was going to happen,” Carroll said.
Carroll has since decided to run as an independent candidate, taking his campaign directly to voters.
He rejects the suggestion that his decision could split the Conservative vote.
“I’m a centrist political leader so when people come up to me and say, ‘Dave, you’re going to split the Conservative vote,’ I don’t believe that that’s true,” he said.
Carroll points to the success of Bobbi Ann Brady, an independent MPP representing Haldimand-Norfolk at Queen’s Park, as an example of how independent candidates can find support.
“Having an independent member of parliament may be the most Brantford thing ever,” Carroll said. “Brantford is a very unique community and I think people have felt a little bit put off by others assuming that they know what’s best for Brantford-Brant South, because we’re a very unique bunch.”
Retired political science professor Peter Woolstencroft believes the controversy surrounding the Conservative nomination could have consequences when voters cast their ballots.
“There’s no doubt about it, there are a lot of unhappy conservatives in the area. And that’s going to affect the results on December the 7th,” Woolstencroft said.
The Liberals have named certified financial planner Joy O’Donnell as their candidate, while former city councillor Brad Ward will represent the NDP. The Green Party has not yet announced a candidate.
Woolstencroft says the Conservatives are also facing a challenging national political landscape.
He points to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strong polling numbers and criticism facing Poilievre in the riding following the party’s candidate selection decision.
“So, with those two things in place, it’s very hard to see a Conservative victory. And if the Liberals don’t win this, I’ll be astonished,” Woolstencroft said.
Brantford-Brant South is one of six federal ridings holding byelections on Dec. 7.
Prime Minister Mark Carney called the byelections in three Quebec ridings, two Ontario ridings and one Saskatchewan riding.
Advanced voting will take place in Brantford-Brant South on November 27, November 28, November 29 and November 30, from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. On Dec. 7, the polls will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m.
