Christine Elliott has a six-point lead over Doug Ford in the race to become the next leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party and should be considered a “slight favourite” to claim victory on Saturday, a new poll has found.

The Mainstreet research poll of 18,308 party members found that Elliott had the support of 38.3 per cent of decided voters compared to 32.2 per cent for Ford, 17.3 per cent for Caroline Mulroney and 12 per cent for Tanya Granic Allen.

The gap, however, narrows when points are awarded on a riding by riding basis, as they will be during the leadership convention.

Under that scenario, Elliott would get about 35.2 per cent of the points compared to 34.9 per cent for Ford, 17.3 per cent for Mulroney and 12.5 per cent for Granic Allen.

While no candidate appears poised to win on a first ballot, the poll suggests that Elliott is on track to win but only on a third ballot featuring just her and Ford. In that scenario, the poll suggests that Elliott would take 50.7 per cent of the vote to Ford’s 49.3 per cent.

In simulations completed by Mainstreet Research, Elliott won 53 per cent of the time compared to 47 per cent for Ford.

“We expect (Tanya) Granic Allen to come in fourth place and when she drops off overwhelmingly her supporters go to (Doug) Ford, so we will see some drama,” Mainstreet Research President and CEO Quito Maggi told CP24 on Friday.”Ford will pass Christine Elliott on the second ballot but we expect Christine to pass him again (on the third ballot).”

The rules for the PC leadership race call for voters to submit a preferential ballot in which they have ranked each of the candidates.

Assuming that no candidate receives more than half of the vote on a first ballot, the last-place candidate will be dropped and their voters will be redistributed according to who they selected as their second choice.

According to the poll, Ford is the second choice of about two-thirds (66.4 per cent) of Granic Allen’s supporters but is only ranked second by 15.9 per cent of Mulroney’s supporters. Elliott, meanwhile, is listed as the second choice by about 62 per cent of Mulroney supporters and 11.4 per cent of Granic Allen supporters.

As a result, Mainstreet Research says that Elliott should be considered the favourite, albeit only slightly.

“If Christine Elliott starts at 40 per cent (on the first ballot) it is almost for sure she wins but if Ford is at 37 per cent, he can maybe catch her,” Maggi told CP24.

The poll was conducted between March 1 and 8. It is considered accurate to within 0.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.