The federal election hasn’t hit its stride yet, but observers sense a power shift is possible. Conservatives reading the polls are feeling good. Liberals looking at the same polls are feeling, well, nervous. The NDP takes great comfort in the popularity of Jagmeet Singh but worries that it won’t win NDP seats on election day.

Tom Mulcair, the former leader of the NDP and now a commentator based in Quebec, told CP24 today that when all is said and done, the election will be decided in the GTA. And with the party leaders in Montreal for the important TVA French debate, it’s a perfect day to check in on campaigning in the GTA.

Going into the election, the Liberals held a grip on the GTA. But now Liberal nerves are on edge. One Liberal told me “enthusiasm is very low” and said the party made a “gross miscalculation” calling the election. Liberals in Toronto are hoping the party has a magic “card they have up its sleeve.” There was a hope that the Liberal Platform would energize the campaign, but it held few surprises. An early Liberal assessment is that it “fell flat.”

The Liberal campaign energy of 2015 and even 2019 is gone. Leaving some Liberal campaigns struggling to explain to voters why the election was called in the first place.

Everyone I talked to today pointed out that usually, the “why an election now?” question fades away on day three of the campaign. But that’s not happening this year. Liberal campaigns are having to explain why there is an election in the midst of a pandemic, with COVID-19 numbers rising and the school year about to begin.

A Conservative also said voters are confused about why there has to be an election now. Another Conservative says if Trudeau wants a majority, he should say so. He reminded me that in 2011 that is just what Stephen Harper said -- day in and day out. Well yes. But back then, Harper’s Conservative minority government couldn’t even pass its budget. Harper made his case and won his majority. The difference is that in 2021 the Liberal minority government easily passed its budget. Trudeau, so far, has failed to make his case for why he needs a new mandate now.

A Conservative candidate on the west side of the GTA told me his campaign has “momentum.” The Liberals hold the riding now, but it was held by the Conservatives during the Harper years. The candidate pointed out the importance of turnout. The common thinking is that a low turnout helps the Conservatives. That might be, but there could be a COVID-19 “hassle factor” on September 20. In some cases, polling stations will be in new locations, and there could be long lines on election day to achieve safety distancing requirements. The candidate worries that might keep Conservative voters away too.

Another Conservative GTA candidate says voters are receptive to the Conservative message but says, “nobody is happy an election was called.” The Liberals are taking the blame for that.

In Toronto, the NDP is feeling the love for Jagmeet Singh. With Tom Mulcair as the leader, the NDP got wiped out of the Toronto ridings in 2015. Singh was popular in 2019, but that wasn’t enough to win back any of the downtown ridings.

Paul Taylor is running for the NDP in Parkdale-High Park. He lost to Liberal Arif Virani in 2019 but is back for a re-match. Taylor insists there “is something happening,” as he canvasses. Taylor says voters feel the Liberals are “taking them for granted.” Taylor also says voters in his riding are asking, “what the reason is for the election?”

Another NDP campaigner pointed out that for 18 months, Trudeau called on Canadians to “stay home and stay safe.” But he says then Trudeau launched a 36-day election campaign with COVID-19 numbers rising.

Everyone I talked to in the GTA cautioned that it’s still early in the campaign. But, among the door knockers listening to voters, there is a feeling the mood is volatile in the most important election battleground in the country.