The election campaign countdown clock is ticking its way down to Thursday and the polls cannot be closer.
Today’s EKOS poll has the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives in a dead heat – 35.9 per cent each. The NDP trail the other two with 17.6 per cent. EKOS gives the Liberal Party the edge in likely voters with 42.2 per cent and the PCs 35.4 per cent. Another poll released today, this one by Abacus, has almost identical results - the PC’s are at 36 per cent only one point ahead of the Liberals at 35 per cent. Abacus has the NDP at 24 per cent. The Ipsos Reid poll, released by CTV/CP24 last Friday, also showed a tie between the Liberals and PCs at 35 per cent. But that poll gave the PCs the edge among likely voters with 40 per cent and the Liberals eight points behind at 32 per cent.
All three parties recognize the stakes and all three leaders are upping the ante as they try to find the right words to win the support needed to get the most seats. For the rest of the campaign the leaders will be targeting ridings where the parties think they have a chance to win or where a leader’s visit might help hold a close race. In the coming 72 hours look for some overlap where the leaders go because there aren’t all that many up for grabs.
On Sunday Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne put the choice in the starkest words possible warning that a vote for the NDP and Andrea Horwath is going to help the PCs and Tim Hudak win the election. Today Wynne toned down the language but still said Ontario has only two options – one is Hudak’s cut and slash agenda, or the Liberal plan. Wynne travelled to ridings in the Kitchener–London area today looking to hold, and maybe grab, some seats there. Kitchener Centre is an open seat and in 2011 Liberal John Milloy won by only 300 votes over the PCs. Both parties are running prominent candidates this time and winning here might tell the tale on election night. Over the last 30 years the riding has always voted with the winning party both provincially and federally. Kitchener-Waterloo, currently held by the NDP, is also up for grabs. The nearby riding of Brant is currently held by the Liberals but the PC vote jumped more than 10 per cent in 2011 and the Liberals held the seat by about a thousand votes.
Tim Hudak had a jam packed day of campaigning and one of his stops was that riding, Brant, around Brantford. Hudak is now targeting close or open Liberal-held ridings. Winning these ridings would be his ticket to the Premier’s chair. First Hudak flew into Ottawa-Orleans an open riding the PCs want to win from the Liberals. Then back to the GTA for a media availability in Brampton before the stopover in Brant. From there it was a drive down to the riding with the longest title in Ontario - Dundas-Ancaster-Flamborough-Westdale. This seems to be a comfortable hold for the Liberals but maybe the PC’s polling has spotted an opportunity. The day ended back in Brampton with a town hall meeting. Brampton is in play for all three parties and all three leaders have made multiple stops in the area’s ridings. Hudak’s message is a combination of anger at what he sees as the scandal-ridden Liberal government and hope – the positive message of a new Tory government that will turn around Ontario’s fortunes.
Andrea Horwath started her day in Toronto trying to dismiss the scare tactics of the Liberals. From there Horwath dashed down to southwestern Ontario. The NDP needs to hold the ridings it holds there and the party hopes to pick up Windsor-West from the Liberals. Horwath said voters don’t want to be told how to vote and repeated that voters should opt for the NDP and not the “corrupt” Liberals or the “crazy” PC platform.
With the election so close I expect we’ll see some fancy travel plans as the parties try to get their leaders into as many key ridings as possible. It will mean short campaign stops, a few tough words, toss in a media event and then on to the next hotly contested riding. Behind the scenes the party organizations will worry about turnout. In 2011 less than 50 per cent turned out to vote – a record low.
That might, just might, change. The good news is that the latest Ipsos Reid poll showed that about 56 per cent Ontarians said they would definitely vote. The bad news is that according to Elections Ontario today 37,000 fewer voters made it out to the advance polls compared to 2011.
