Tories, Liberals and NDP in tight three-way race: poll
Chris Fox, CP24.com
Published Wednesday, June 11, 2014 5:28PM EDT
Last Updated Wednesday, June 11, 2014 8:58PM EDT
The three major provincial parties are in a dead heat on the eve of the Ontario election, according to a new poll from Ipsos-Reid.
The online poll of 1,191 randomly selected residents has determined that Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals have the support of 33 per cent of decided voters compared to 31 per cent for Tim Hudak and the Tories, 30 per cent for Andrea Horwath and the NDP and 5 per cent for all other parties, including Mike Schreiner and the greens.
The NDP are up four points from a poll released on June 6 while the Tories are down four points and the Liberals are down two points.
When compared to another poll released at the outset of the campaign, the contrast is more striking with the Tories down six points, and the Liberals and NDP each up two points.
Tory supporters more likely to head to polls
It’s not all bad news for Tim Hudak and the PC party, though.
As has been the case throughout the campaign, Hudak enjoys an advantage when it comes to the commitment of his supporters to actually go to the polls with 36 per cent of those who say “only an unforeseen emergency “ would keep them from voting supporting the Tories compared to 30 per cent for both the Liberals and NDP.
When compared to the June 6 poll, the Tories are down four points among the most likely to vote while the Liberals are down two points and the New Democrats are up six points.
“The outcome of a tight horserace will be determined by the party that can rally its supporters to get out and vote,” an Ipsos-Reid analysis accompanying the poll states. “The poll suggests that the Tories continue to have this advantage, as they have throughout the election campaign, although the margin is tightening.”
Horwath top choice for premier
Keeping with the upward trend for the New Democrats, Andrea Horwath has emerged as the preferred choice for premier with 38 per cent of respondents saying the NDP leader would be best suited for the top job compared to 33 per cent for Kathleen Wynne and 29 per cent for Tim Hudak.
Horwath is up five points from the June 6 poll while Wynne is down five points and Hudak is down three points.
Ontarians warming up to idea of another minority
As for the preferred result come Thursday night, the majority of Ontarians continue to say that they want a majority government but it appears many are now warming up to the idea of another minority.
The poll found that 56 per cent of Ontarians want a majority government while 44 per cent want a minority. The number of respondents in favour of a minority was up 11 points from the June 6 poll and according to Ipsos-Reid that result is now the most “likely” resolution with “no agreement on who should lead the government.”
The poll was conducted between June 6 and 11 and is considered accurate to within 2.4 percentage points.
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