The ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States could be coming to an end after Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting at the G7 summit in Kananaskis last week, where they both agreed on reaching a deal withing the next month.
“I think we’re going to accomplish a lot. And our primary focus will be trade and trade with Canada,” Trump said at the summit.
CTV News Ottawa investigates how reaching a deal could impact your mortgage rate.
Tariffs mean higher inflation, interest rates: Economist
Moshe Lander, Concordia University economics professor told CTV News Wednesday the tariffs associated with the trade war increase the inflation rate. He says higher inflation means higher interest rates.
“(Tariff wars) should start to stall the Canadian economy,” he said.
If a deal is reached, “we would see flat or even negative growth, which means that the Bank of Canada should cut interest rates to boost growth. You can’t simultaneously increase and decrease interest rates,” according to Lander.
“The Bank of Canada has a difficult decision as to which one is more damaging to the economy, a return of inflation like we saw in the last couple of years, or the risk of a prolonged recession,” he said.
“Whatever it is that the Bank of Canada decides to do with interest rates is going to determine what happens to mortgage rates,” Lander said. “So, if the Bank of Canada increases rates, mortgage rates will go up. And if the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates, then mortgage rates should come down a little bit.”
A lot of Canadians have mortgages coming up for renewal in 2025 and 2026. If mortgage rates remain high, some will be put in “precarious positions,” where they have to either sell their homes or file for bankruptcy, especially if the housing market is soft, according to Lander.
“This is the type of thing that the Bank of Canada has to consider as well, not because their role is to save Canadians from poor financial decisions, but to save Canadians from inflicting damage on them that could be avoided or delayed or supported in other ways,” he said.
According to the latest numbers from Statistics Canada, Canada’s annual pace of inflation is holding steady at 1.7 per cent in May.
Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of Agri-Food Analytics told CTV News the Canadian economy wants to see an inflation rate below 2.5 per cent.
“So, we still have a long way to go, but we’re going the right direction,” Charlebois said.
The trade war has resulted in unpredictability, signaling creeping inflation, prompting the Bank of Canada to hold its interest rate for a second consecutive decision on June 4. At the time, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said there was a “clear consensus” among monetary policymakers to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent as they wait for more information on the economic impact of tariffs.
“Uncertainty remains high,” Macklem said.
Interest rates like ‘a rollercoaster ride’
Frank Napolitano from Mortgage Brokers Ottawa told CTV Morning Live Tuesday interest rates have been like “a rollercoaster ride,” up one week and down the next. He says the markets have been shifting depending on Trump’s social media posts.
“It’s uncertainty, we don’t know, I mean if he says on something one week, we know that it’s going to drive inflation up, and if he says something else the week after, that’ll drive inflation back down,” he said.
“So, (Macklem) doesn’t actually know whether to follow his plan that I believe he had in January where it was going to do a bunch of consecutive rate cuts to get that rate back into neutral territory, which we’re in the middle of right now.”
Is reaching a deal worth having?
Carney said after meeting with Trump in Kananaskis that he’ll be imposing counter tariffs if a deal is not reached in 30 days. Lander hopes Carney’s announcement “focuses American minds that a deal is worth having.”
However, the U.S. holds disproportionate power, according to Lander.
“A lot of that damage is likely to rebound back on to Canada. So, because of that disproportionate power imbalance, it’s nice for the Prime Minister to say, I hope we have a deal in 30 days,” Lander said.
“The hope is that the Americans realize that the tariffs do inflict some damage on the U.S. economy.”
With files from CTV News National
