The weaponization of trade to “strengthen American power and pre-eminence” is entrenched in the new U.S. National Security Strategy recently released by the White House.
In the prologue, U.S. President Donald Trump writes that the U.S. “will continue to develop every dimension of our national strength, and we will make America safer, richer, freer, greater and more powerful than ever before.”
The Trump doctrine raises new concerns that Canada’s sovereignty will come under even greater economic and political pressure.
Defence Minister David McGuinty says Canada is “taking note” of the new American strategy, and managing the relationship on several fronts, but will “continue to work closely with our neighbour and partner” in defence, security and intelligence.
“That relationship has not been shaken over the last several months and (past) year. That relationship continues to be strong,” insisted McGuinty when asked by CTV News for a response, after announcing a $2.9 million investment in military satellites to be used for Arctic surveillance.
It’s been just over a year since Trump started talking about Canada as the 51st state. Before his inauguration, at a dinner in Mar-a-Lago, Trump joked about annexing Canada and called former prime minister Justin Trudeau “Governor.”
Since then, Trump has started a trade war by imposing steep tariffs to cripple Canada’s steel, aluminum and forestry sectors, while applying pressure to automakers to bring production back to the U.S.
Lumped into the ‘Western Hemisphere’
Canada is only mentioned once in the Trump doctrine, along with Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and Mexico in reference to a trade imbalance.
The “danger” for the country rests in the fact that it is lumped in under the U.S. plans to dominate the Western Hemisphere, says Canada’s former NATO ambassador, Kerry Buck.
“The real concern for Canada is that kind of coercive economic nationalism throughout the region which focuses on ‘Buy American.’ (The U.S) will push out competitors from the markets because (it) will be the preeminent power in the region.”
Buck, who is now a senior fellow at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, says the Americans could seek to turn Canada into a “vassal state,” offering military protection only if Canada helps further U.S. interests.
To stop it from happening, Buck says the “government’s steps to diversify our defence and trading relationships are absolutely crucial but need to be accelerated.” She says Canada’s commitment to increase its NATO targets is a wise move, but should have been done much earlier.
Buck says this is a “hard balancing act” for the government, especially when it comes to the extended procurement review of fighter jets from the U.S. or Sweden. The review was supposed to be finished by September. Buck says “exercising strategic patience” in trade negotiations is a smart move, but also risks prompting damaging U.S. countermeasures.
Possible political interference
For Artur Wilczynski, a former intelligence officer with the Communications Security Establishment, the codifying of the “America First” policy in a security strategy lays out a justification for political interference along with economic warfare in the Western Hemisphere to which Canada belongs.
“We will reward and encourage the region’s government, political policies and movements broadly aligned with our principles and strategy,” page 16 of the White House document states.
“That sounds like a lot of meddling in our internal affairs. And that (the U.S.) will use all its instruments of trade craft. Will the American government support movements that run counter to Canadian interests?” Wilczynski says.
Wilczynski, currently a Senior Fellow at the University of Ottawa, says that Trump’s security strategy slams migration, diversity, multilateralism and the international rules-based order, policies and institutions that Canada supports and relies on.
Trump’s doctrine also has language that mirrors White Nationalist parties.
Canada has its own version of Trump supporters in “Maple MAGA” and Wilczynski says it’s possible that the U.S. government could help fund the movement and amplify its views.
Wilczynski is also concerned that the pressure from tariffs is pitting industrial sectors and provinces against each other: forestry in B.C., pipelines in Alberta, autos in Ontario and supply management in Quebec. And just this week, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on fertilizer which could harm Saskatchewan potash producers.
“I think the United States has very clearly, and the president has very clearly indicated his desire to make Canada the 51st state,” said Wilcyznski, pointing to the mounting evidence in the past year.
“To believe they will not overtly or covertly try to achieve those outcomes would be irresponsible for Canada.”
