Canadians hoping for a white Christmas may need to adjust their expectations this year. Forecasts suggest snow-covered ground is unlikely in parts of the country, including southern Ontario.
“Weather gods are not going to deliver on this one,” said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, in an interview with CTV News Channel Sunday.
“I think it’s going to be not only dreaming of a white Christmas in Toronto, you’re going to have to pray for it,” he said.
“I think in the last 11 years, eight of them have been green in Toronto area.”
The Weather Network’s white Christmas forecast shows slim odds for snow-covered ground in major southern Ontario cities such as Toronto, Windsor and Hamilton.
Instead, forecasters say the best chances for a snowy Christmas morning are shaping up across the Prairies, parts of northern Ontario, eastern Ontario, and southern Quebec.
“I think where you normally see white Christmas is you’re going to get it, but in some areas, you’re going to just have to wait for it,” Phillips said.
“In Ottawa and in parts of the Atlantic Canada, I think it’s going to be more of a winner … and certainly, on the Prairies … of course, not in Vancouver, Victoria, they may see flurries … but typically they only get about an 8 per cent chance of a white Christmas.”
According to The Weather Network, a white Christmas is defined as having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. local time on Dec. 25. A “perfect Christmas” adds falling snow to the mix.
December began with widespread cold and snow from coast to coast, but forecasters say whether that snow sticks around will likely hinge on a single storm system expected to track across the country in the days leading up to Christmas.
Across the Prairies, confidence is high. Significant snowfall is already on the ground, with more expected ahead of Christmas Day. Arctic air should help preserve the snowpack, making a white Christmas likely in Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, and Winnipeg.
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Further east, a developing low-pressure system could boost the odds in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, including Ottawa and Montreal, though forecasters caution confidence remains limited.
Atlantic Canada’s major cities currently face low odds, but forecasts there remain highly flexible.
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Phillips said the uneven outlook reflects broader winter trends, as Canada continues to warm overall while still remaining one of the coldest and snowiest countries on Earth.
“Winter has arrived in every square centimeter of Canada right now,” he said.
“We are the winter country… we’ve never cancelled winter here in Canada.”
Even without a white Christmas morning, Phillips said winter activities may still be waiting just days later.
“Don’t worry,” he said.
“Between Christmas and New Year’s, it’s going to be a little cooler than normal, and it’s going to be only snow, not rain.”
