Quebecers are facing major decisions in coming months, as the possibility of a referendum on sovereignty is higher than it has been in decades. With months to go before an election in October, the Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is ahead in the polls and promising to hold a sovereignty vote in its first term.
This comes as both the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), and the opposition provincial Liberals are running leadership races ahead of the October election.
“The boomers are gone now, and all the new leaders are part of Generation X or even some of the older millennial cohorts,” said Léger Marketing polling expert Sebastien Dallaire. “So, it’s a very different landscape. You’re going to see a lot of new ideas, and new proposals being put forth.”
Foreign politics loom over Quebec’s sovereignty debate
But this political shakeup is also unfolding with the backdrop of a wild card: U.S. President Donald Trump. Dallaire expects that as Quebecers crank up debate over whether a third referendum should be held, Trump will lean in.
“We know what’s happening with Alberta right now, where the U.S. administration is getting directly involved in the prospects of a referendum,” said Dallaire. “We can expect the same to happen in Quebec. And we know Quebecers really dislike Donald Trump as a leader, more so than Canadians in other provinces.”
Dallaire says Quebecers also dislike politicians from outside the province getting involved in Quebec affairs. Last month, Ontario Premier Doug Ford waded into Quebec’s sovereignty debate saying it would be a “disaster” for the PQ to be elected. Quebec Premier François Legault replied saying it wasn’t a good idea.
“Quebecers don’t like — whether it is Mr. Trump or Mr. Carney or Mr. Ford or whoever — people from outside Quebec doing that,” said Legault.
Despite the PQ’s now long reign at the top of the polls, surveys also show that support for sovereignty is low, hovering around 30 per cent in a series of recent polls.
When Christine Fréchette, Quebec’s minister of the economy, innovation and energy, announced she was running to replace Legault as party leader, she said that this is the worst time in half a century to hold a referendum, given the current climate in North America and around the world. Fréchette once worked for the Parti Québécois.
A new generation of sovereigntists
But some young sovereigntists argue the opposite.
“Canada is a big country and it’s still not able to protect us from everything that Trump is doing, so at least if we were Quebec as a country and able to make our own decisions it would be more representative of what we want and what is best for us,” said Catherine Lamoureux-Schmidt.
Lamoureux-Schmidt studies law at Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), while Leonard Vidal studies communications at the same university. They are behind a Quebec-wide coalition of student groups now mobilizing as talk of a possible referendum ramps up.
“More and more schools are joining our movement,” said Vidal. “People want to do things, they want to be involved.”
The students say their movement is distinct from the “oui” campaigns of past referendums.
“The project has evolved a whole lot since those days,” said Vidal. “It has been thirty years. Today, it’s not just about culture and language, it is mostly about everything else. It’s about education, about the environmental state of Canada right now, about feminism. It includes all Quebecers.”
They dismiss critics who say that, with current support for sovereignty, the answer to a referendum question is likely to be “non” again and that holding one would be a costly and pointless exercise.
“Instead of just telling ourselves that, ‘Oh it is doomed anyway, we are not going to try anymore’ we have to work at it,” said Lamoureux-Schmidt. “Anyone that ever brought about a big change is a dreamer, you know.”
But even among young Quebecers, polls show support for sovereignty remains a minority view. But it is just one of the issues Quebecers will be looking at as they decide who will lead the province after the October election.
