Alberta separation: Survey shows Canadians believe U.S. would support independence

As discussion around Alberta separation continues, a new survey suggests many Canadians believe the United States would back the province if it chose to leave Confederation.

A Nanos Research survey commissioned by CTV News found four in five Canadians believe it is “likely” (45.8 per cent) or “somewhat likely” (37.8 per cent) the U.S. would support Alberta separating from Canada.

Respondents in the Prairie provinces reported the highest levels of people who believed this was “likely” at 58.2 per cent, whereas 30 per cent of Quebec residents believe that it is “likely” the U.S. would support Alberta separating.

Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University, said the results reflect a shift in how Canadians view their southern neighbour.

“The figures represent what might be called perception of opportunistic realism,” Hampson said.

“Canadians clearly now believe the U.S. would support the breakup of Canada rather than being a neighbour that is committed to a unified and strong Canada.”

Greg Anderson, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, said he is skeptical about how far such support would actually go.

“They’re not thinking too much about the implications of a divided Canada on their doorstep. Rather they’re just thinking it’s more about rhetorical, sowing division and trying to gain leverage where they can,” he said.

Some experts say the perception that Washington would support Alberta’s separation has been fuelled by rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has previously referred to Canada as a potential “51st state.”

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Jeffrey Rath, general counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Project, said members of the separatist movement have met with U.S. officials and believes support from the United States would continue.

“We’ve discovered that the U.S. is overwhelmingly supportive of what we’re doing, and I can’t see any reason that they wouldn’t continue to be so,” Rath said.

For weeks, the group Stay Free Alberta has been gathering signatures for an independence referendum.

Some Canadians interviewed said they believe potential U.S. backing could be tied to hopes of Canada joining the United States.

However, experts caution that Alberta joining the United States would face significant political hurdles. adding Alberta could alter the balance of power in the U.S. Congress, making it a difficult proposition in Washington.

Methodology

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between Jan. 31 and Feb. 4, 2026 as part of an omnibus survey. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents. The sample included both land and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. Individuals randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This study was commissioned by the CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.