There is “no obvious challenger” among Conservative politicians in Canada to Prime Minister Mark Carney, according to a new Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News.
The poll, which surveyed Canadians randomly by phone and online between July 28 to 30, provided a list of Conservative politicians and asked which would have a chance to defeat Carney if they were leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
According to the poll, 16 per cent said former prime minister Stephen Harper, while current Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre received 15 per cent of the vote. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, sits at 11 per cent.
But 33 per cent of Canadians surveyed said “none can defeat” Carney.
Other notable Conservatives, including Peter MacKay, Rona Ambrose, Danielle Smith, Jean Charest and Lisa Raitt, each received less than 10 of the votes respectively, while Jason Kenney, Mark Mulroney, Erin O’Toole, Andrew Scheer, Leslyn Lewis, Tim Houston, Jamil Jivani and Caroline Elliott each received five per cent or less.
Speaking to CTV News, Nanos Research founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos says there is both “good news and bad news” in the polling for Poilievre.
“Only 15 per cent of Canadians think that he (does) have a chance to defeat Mark Carney, so he’s not seen as a prime minister or a close challenger. That’s the bad news,” Nanos said. “The good news is (there) doesn’t seem to be anyone in the bushes, the shadows, in the wings that people identify as a real alternative to Pierre Poilievre.”
In July, Poilievre stirred up some Conservative infighting after he referred to the team behind defeated B.C. Conservative leadership candidate Caroline Elliott as “Liberal lobbyists from out east.”
Asked why there has been no public push for a Conservative leadership alternative despite the lagging polling numbers, Nanos pointed to Carney’s “middle-of-the-road” policies such as cancelling the consumer carbon tax and prioritizing energy projects like a pipeline.
“I think for a lot of middle-of-the-road voters and perhaps conservatives that are a little progressive, Mark Carney actually has a lot of appeal,” Nanos added.
This latest poll also shows a similar trend when it comes to Carney’s personal popularity among Canadians since winning the federal election in 2025.
The most recent Nanos Research data, released on Aug. 4, shows Carney remains the preferred prime minister at 56 per cent support with Poilievre at 18.4 per cent.
But while overall federal voting intention remains with the governing Liberals, that gap is smaller compared to personal leadership numbers, with the Liberals at 47.1 per cent and the Conservatives at 27.9 per cent support, according to Nanos Research. The NDP, meanwhile, has 12.7 per cent of support.
According to Nanos, the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump has largely allowed Carney to enjoy an extended honeymoon phase with Canadians.
“Consumer confidence is flat. There’s no deal with the Americans. People are worried about paying for the bills, and they’re very grumpy,” Nanos said. “But the thing is, it looks like right now, they’re not blaming the Liberal government or Mark Carney for this.”
Nanos tells CTV News that the fall could be a big test for the prime minister with the Quebec election and the Alberta referendum coming up.
“He’s had a prolonged honeymoon because he’s been so proactive and he’s been so busy out there trying to build trade relationships and attract investment in Canada,” Nanos said. “He’s been driving the agenda. He’s not going to have as much control over the agenda in the fall. That’ll be a big test for him and this government.”
Extended grace period, weak opposition: strategists weigh in
In an interview with CTV News on Tuesday, Liberal strategist and former candidate Sabrina Grover said the Nanos polling reflects not just the last few weeks, but the last 18 months in Canadian politics.
“It’s that Canadians are giving Mark Carney not only what I would describe as a very extended honeymoon period, but also the grace to continue to do what he’s doing in terms of negotiating deals,” she said, pointing to bilateral relations with the United States, but also with other countries, and domestically, for example with the Alberta government.
Grover also said that while leaders at every level of government, including Carney, recognizes they’ll lose support if they fail to deliver results, the prime minister is benefitting from a relatively weak opposition.
“We’re not seeing kind of like a crisis mode for Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives, but we are seeing them kind of in a standstill, and I would say that standstill is 2024,” she said. “And so, without the presence of a strong opposition, I think that the government will get a lot more leeway and a lot more grace to act on their agenda.”
Conservative strategist and former staffer Jamie Ellerton also told CTV News in an interview on Tuesday that the Conservatives haven’t changed their message track since the last election.
“As a result, I think Canadians are kind of tuning it out while the Conservative party figures out what it’s going to be in the next election,” he said.
Ellerton categorized the less-than 30 per cent support for the Conservatives as “like the floor,” because a third of Canadians are likely to vote for the party regardless.
“So, I think part of what you’re seeing in the polls right now is that kind of still unsureness, uneasiness as to where the country goes from here, and generally being content that Mark Carney is doing his best on behalf of the country to navigate all this,” Ellerton said.
Still, Ellerton said, while there is “broad-based dissatisfaction and disappointment” with last year’s federal election result, “there are no camps genuinely organizing a leadership bid to try and oust (Poilievre), which is what you saw under the previous past two leaders.”
With files from CTV News’ Rachel Aiello and Spencer Van Dyk
Methodology: Nanos Research, RDD dual-frame hybrid telephone and online random survey, July 28th to 30th, 2026, n=1104, accurate 3.0 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
