OTTAWA – Several Conservative MPs are privately expressing deep concerns about Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, with some telling CTV News they do not believe he will still be leading the party when the next federal election is called.
CTV News spoke to 17 members of the Conservative caucus from all regions of the country, and all were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s challenges and internal concerns.
Specifically, MPs were asked about a recent Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News, which concluded that Prime Minister Mark Carney has “no obvious challenger” when presented with a list of Conservative politicians.
According to the poll, 33 per cent of Canadians surveyed said “none can defeat” Carney. Former prime minister Stephen Harper, meanwhile, received 16 per cent support, while Poilievre garnered 15 per cent of the vote.
All but two of the Conservative MPs who spoke with CTV News agreed with the Nanos assessment. While Poilievre remains popular in the West, particularly in Alberta, they are pessimistic about any Conservative leader beating Carney in a general election. They don’t necessarily blame Poilievre for the party’s difficulties, but they also offered candid, bleak assessments of the Conservatives’ position after spending time with constituents across the country this summer.
Five MPs pointed to Ontario as a particular problem area, saying some traditional Conservative voters have warmed to Carney and his leadership. One MP put it plainly: “We are in real trouble in Ontario.” When asked what would happen if an election were called tomorrow, the MP responded: “I don’t even want to think about that.”
Another MP who represents a rural riding in the province described growing dissatisfaction with Poilievre among seniors and women, but said there is still time for the party to recover.
The same MP also described a byelection that has yet to be called in Brantford, Ont., after Larry Brock announced last week he will step down in September, as a key test for the party. The riding has been Conservative since 2008, and the MP said if the Conservatives can’t hold that seat, Poilievre’s leadership will be in serious peril.
Speaking to CTV News, the Ontario MP likened the situation to the Liberals’ loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s in 2024, a defeat widely seen as a turning point that accelerated pressure on then-prime minister Justin Trudeau before he stepped down as Liberal leader.
Meanwhile, one Atlantic MP described the party’s support in the region as “cratered,” adding that when they knock on the doors of constituents, they tell them Poilievre is not liked. They also believe the party would suffer if a federal election were held tomorrow.
According to the Nanos poll, Canadians in Atlantic Canada represent the largest regional group who believe there is no obvious Conservative challenger for Carney, at the moment.
Support for Poilievre amongst western MPs appears stronger, but there are still some concerns.
One Alberta MP CTV News spoke with expressed unequivocal support for Poilievre, while another in that province said caucus members need to “chill out,” arguing the leader remains a strong communicator who is capable of defeating Carney in the next campaign.
However, another western MP said Poilievre should consider stepping aside.
“Pierre did an amazing job in the last election, but the game has changed. He needs to read the room,” the MP said. “Many MPs are worried about losing their seats, including MPs in Western Canada.”
The MP added that Poilievre “deserves the dignity of resigning on his own terms in order to preserve the Conservative movement.”
Another rural Ontario MP said they remain loyal to Poilievre, and while they understand their colleagues’ concerns about Conservative prospects, they said politics can change rapidly, especially in this volatile environment.
“Many people, Conservatives included, didn’t think Stephen Harper could beat Paul Martin in 2006, and look what happened,” the MP said. “It is going to get a lot harder for the prime minister to deliver what he promised to Canadians during the election campaign, and we will continue to point that out.”
Longtime Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner was not among the MPs who CTV News spoke with, but in a recent online piece, she wrote: “For progress to be made, a movement owes grace to a leader who decides to, in turn, show humility and discipline after a setback.”
Speaking to reporters at a press conference in Ottawa on Tuesday, when asked about the future of the party, Rempel Garner said she thinks “it’s very healthy for any political party to go through a period of introspection.”
Asked if she thinks the Conservatives can win an election under Poilievre’s leadership, Rempel Garner said, “Yes, I do.”
The House of Commons is set to resume on Sept. 21, and multiple MPs who spoke to CTV News say the key to Poilievre retaining support in caucus will be his level of interaction with MPs once the House returns.
About half of the MPs CTV News spoke with said he was distant in the final months of the last sitting, just before the House went on summer break, and morale suffered as Carney built his majority and the reality of years of being in Opposition settled in.
As one senior MP in the party simply put it, “being in Opposition sucks.”
