TORONTO - Inside a small children’s store in Toronto, owner Jill Rochon slaps on new price tags to some of the goods she’s recently imported from the U.S. while laughing and conversing with her lone employee that day, Zoe Tilups.
The two are more than employer and employee. They admit — they’re more like friends — with Tilups having worked at Jill and the Beanstalk toy store for more than six years.
But the future of their friendship may be on shaky ground as new U.S. tariffs and Canada’s proposed “dollar-for-dollar” counter-tariffs are expected to increase costs for Rochon. She may have no choice but to lay off Tilups and other staff members.
“If I had to let them go, I would have to let them go,” Rochon told CTV News Sunday. “I feel very strongly for them, so I’d have a really hard time doing that, but yeah, I would have to let staff go if we come up with that [shortfall.]”
Roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk because of the United States’ new 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods, according to an analysis conducted by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe, who spent hours calculating Statistics Canada’s input-output numbers.
“If we assume that these tariffs remain in place for some time, what it effectively means is that Americans will be purchasing fewer of the tariff items from Canadian producers -- and that will mean less output in Canada and therefore less employment in those exporting firms,” said Tombe.
His analysis estimates that approximately 52,000 jobs are directly at risk, while indirect effects on Canadian suppliers and service providers could put another 35,000 at risk.
The hardest-hit provinces for job losses are Ontario (36,100), Quebec (18,300) and B.C. (11,200), while the industries that are set to have the highest number of job losses are machinery, electronics, plastics and rubber.
“B.C. is heavily exposed to component circuit board type electronics that are exported to the United States, but also wood products,” said Tombe. “This is something that’s quite important for B.C. and Quebec — to the extent that it affects (the) forestry sector, furniture manufacturing, textiles as well. About half the exports of those two sectors will be affected by these new tariffs.”
But there are also expectations that there will be a domino effect that will impact other provinces as well.
“Because we have a lot of interprovincial trade here in Canada, with broader economic slowdowns, you will start to see job losses in places like Alberta, Saskatchewan (and) the Maritimes as well, because we’ll have this broader reduction in economic activity,” said economist Colin Mang in an interview with CTV News Sunday.
While Prime Minister Mark Carney promised an announcement to provide government aid to businesses, labour groups say Ottawa should also step up to help employees whose jobs are now at risk.
“What we need to see from the government right now is to shore up support for workers,” said Bea Bruske with the Canadian Labour Congress in an interview with CTV News.
“That should mean extending employment insurance and increasing employment insurance. It should mean expanding work-sharing opportunities so that workers can stay connected to the workplace, but maybe (for fewer) hours, including some wage subsidies, so that we can keep the most workers employed as possible.”
