Notes from the campaign trail: Final leaders' debate Friday

Now, finally, the heat is on in the 78-day federal election campaign. Coming out of tonight’s French language debate in Quebec, the parties are free of debate commitments and each will target regions and ridings critical to put them in a position to win on October 19.

Forum Research polls in three downtown Toronto ridings released today showed tight races between the Liberals and the NDP. Who wins in Spadina-Fort York, University-Rosedale and Toronto Centre will matter greatly to the candidates running in those districts but it’s not where the election will be decided. To win, the NDP and the Liberals have to knock off Conservatives – the party holding a majority of seats in Parliament.

In Toronto that means targeting a riding like Etobicoke Centre where Conservative Ted Opitz beat Liberal Borys Wrzesnewskyj by a handful of votes. Or on the other side of Toronto, the Don Valley ridings where the Conservatives won close races. In Nova Scotia the Conservatives have to hold the three ridings where the Tory MPs are not running for re-election. Across Canada the Liberals and NDP have to hold what they have and then win seats from the Conservatives not from each other.

And could someone tell me just what is really happening in Quebec? The NDP won 59 seats of the 78 ridings in Quebec in 2011. It took winning 43 per cent of the popular vote four years ago to get those all those seats. A Leger poll today put the NDP at 26 per cent down 17 points from that big night in 2011. Leger has the Liberal party slightly ahead of the Conservatives with the Bloc far behind at 6 per cent support. But a Forum Poll released yesterday had the Bloc up to 19 per cent. An Angus Reid poll showed a big NDP drop but still put them in first place with 33 per cent. Angus Reid also has the Bloc at 19 per cent. Davenport MP and NDP candidate, Andrew Cash, today chose to talk up the fact his party is in first place in Quebec – downplaying the Leger poll, “oh, you know, that’s Leger,” He said. Observers in Quebec say the NDP position on the wearing of the niqab is the reason for their decline in the polls. Cash maintained the niqab will not be the ballot box issue on October 19.

With just more than two weeks to go before voting day, pick your scenario. In a matter of an hour I heard one Quebec based pundit guess that the best the Bloc could do is to win a couple of seats in the province. Minutes later, on another channel, the guess was the Bloc could take up to 14 seats. One thing seems certain -- the mood of Quebec is in flux.

Andrew Cash talked to me about the need to get Toronto moving and bring change with specific funding for Toronto. He talked about the many things the NDPs $12 billion dollar investment would mean for Toronto. A couple of hours later, Liberal MP and Spadina-Fort York candidate, Adam Vaughan, was telling CP24 that the Liberal Party promised its $60-billion dollar investment will “arrive now.” Well, no, the Liberal plan is to spend that $60 billion over ten years.

One thing to remember is that most of the polls now have the Conservatives ahead by a small margin. It has been the question of this election and it still is. Which party will Canadians wanting “change” vote for? Will that “change” vote split between the NDP and the Liberals or will one of the opposition parties capture the change vote and with that momentum catch the Conservatives?

I did smile at Vaughan’s metaphor. “The seasons are changing, the leaves are changing. They’re not changing (NDP) orange they are turning (Liberal) red.”

The only thing his metaphor didn’t take into account are those still (Conservative) blue October skies.