Notes from the campaign trail: Have Grits lost their grip in Quebec?

Suddenly Quebec is up for grabs. A month ago it looked like the Liberals would be lucky to hold on to the handful of seats it won in 2011 in and around Montreal. Talk was that the Conservatives would be wiped out and that Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe wouldn’t win back his old seat.

That was three weeks ago. But after two French debates and the niqab issue hitting the headlines it has changed dramatically. According to some polls this week the Liberals are now tied with the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois for second place. An Ekos poll out today has the Conservatives and NDP tied in Quebec at 28 per cent each with the Liberals at 22 per cent. Until just a few days ago the NDP was the most popular party in the province. For the first time ever, less than two weeks before voting day, there are four competitive parties in Quebec. The NDP talk about holding on to the safe seats it won by big margins four years ago in Quebec. But how can a seat be safe if the NDP only won it once? How loyal is the NDP voter in Quebec? If the election was held today the NDP would probably win the majority of seats in Quebec but not the 59 it swept in 2011. If those 59 seats were won on the back of Jack Layton how many will be lost on October 19 on the back of Tom Mulcair?

One long time Quebec watcher told me today he’s never seen so many variables at play there in a federal election. With all the other parties up in the polls at the expense of the NDP the number of ridings “in play” goes up every day. That shifting dynamic in the province found the Liberals sending their leader to Quebec for the day. Justin Trudeau started off in Montreal before making his way to Granby and then a rally this evening in Sherbrooke. In 2011 the NDP took the riding of Sherbrooke from the Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals only managed 10 per cent of the vote four years ago. Maybe, just maybe the party sees some movement happening that warranted a visit by Trudeau.

One thing that hasn’t changed over this long campaign is the courting of middle class, hard-working Canadian voter. Trudeau is forever promising to “help” the middle class. He says change is what Canada needs. Trudeau repeatedly says his platform pillar to run “modest deficits for three years” is needed to get the economy rolling after what he calls “Harper’s lost decade.” The provincial government in Quebec is cutting programs and the federal Liberal investment promise may play well in the face of the austerity provincial budget. Trudeau was asked again today about that big trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership. Trudeau committed to having a full and open debate on the TPP in parliament. But his bottom line is that the Liberals are waiting to see the details but “the Liberal party understands the need for trade,” he said.

Tom Mulcair, the other leader campaigning to win the change vote, was back in British Columbia. There are many close races in and around Vancouver. Mulcair was in the new riding Surrey-Newton today and said, “Canadians are ready for change in Ottawa.” And he went on that the NDP is “that positive voice for change.” Mulcair tried to lump Trudeau in with Harper. Mulcair compared Trudeau and Harper’s position on the TPP and told the crowd he “wonders why Trudeau doesn’t campaign with the Conservatives at least then things would be clearer for voters.”

Mulcair said the TPP compensation that Harper has announced for the dairy, poultry and auto sectors is an “admission” that the deal is not good for some Canadians. He also said provisions in the TPP on drugs will mean higher prices and called the deal “shameful.” On the TPP, health care and climate change, Mulcair linked Trudeau with Harper as he worked to sell his agenda as the only real change option. He saved his ‘vote for me’ line for the end, “It’s really easy in this election - child care, health care, pharmacare, Mulcair.”

Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, stayed in the GTA this morning before heading west. In the Conservative held riding Whitby-Oshawa Harper focussed on the economy. Standing in front of a big banner announcing “1.3 million new jobs” Harper said the Conservatives are, “building a Canada that will be the best place on earth” to live and raise a family.

Harper lumped the NDP and Liberals together calling their promises “reckless.” Then he went on to the say both the NDP and the Liberals would hurt families and kill jobs. When Harper turned to the TPP he had one billion dollars in his hand to give to the auto sector. The program would be over ten years – so really $100 million a year – and won’t take effect until 2018. The Conservative release did offer the possibility of more immediate help to the auto sector but only “If automakers are prepared to make firm commitments to new and modernized plants in Canada for the long-term, our government is prepared to offer them more favourable support, such as grants.”

With less than two weeks to go in the campaign, the parties are zeroing in on the voters who have not made up their minds. Expect all three leaders to keep coming back to what each will do for the middle class. Winning also means targeting the ridings each party thinks is still in play or where a gain can be made. And that’s where the leaders will fly to over the last days of the race.