The carefully staged Liberal party platform release got shoved off live TV this morning when it was announced that the Tran Pacific Partnership (TPP) had been agreed to in Atlanta. That’s the first thing to go wrong for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in the past ten days or so.
The TPP still has to be signed, probably in the new year, and then ratified by each of the 12 countries and that could take up to two years. Ed Fast, Canada’s Minister for International Trade, was in Atlanta for the final news conference. He promised a TPP debate after the election, “The new parliament will have a full debate on the merits of the agreement and a vote on the agreement.”
Stephen Harper then went before the cameras to explain the deal to Canadians. He chose to do it first in French and then in English. Perhaps it was a signal that the Conservatives have not given up on taking some seats from the NDP in Quebec. Harper called it a “great day for Canada” and said the TPP will be “the new reference point for international trade” in the world. He announced money to protect the incomes of farmers who will be affected by agreement. Then he said that he will have an announcement for the auto sector “in the next day or two.” He maintained the TPP is a “good deal for the auto sector.” By this afternoon Harper was in Richmond Hill bragging about “Canada becoming a founding member of the TPP the largest economic partnership in the history of the world.” Clearly the Conservative Party sees the TPP as a deal that will convince Canadians to stick with it on October 19.
The NDP didn’t buy any of that. Tom Mulcair was in Toronto at noon to announce new benefits to the arts community. But it was on the TPP that Mulcair was strongest telling his audience he will not “be bound by Stephen Harper’s secret deal.” A carefully chosen phrase that does not mean that after the details come out the NDP won’t, in the end, support TPP. Mulcair called on Harper to release the full text of the agreement before the election. That likely won’t happen and it will allow Mulcair to turn up the heat on Harper on the deal. Mulcair got no questions about funding for the arts instead reporters only wanted to grill Mulcair on the TPP. Mulcair brought the TPP, a huge trade deal, down to what he says are 20,000 jobs that are at stake in the auto sector. He said each of those jobs represents one Canadian family and promised those families, “You can count on me.” The political problem for Mulcair is that 20,000 jobs does not seem like a lot to secure Canada’s exporters access to 40 per cent of the world market.
Justin Trudeau’s platform announcement will get crowded out of the news cycle but his qualified support for the TPP will be noted in all the coverage. Trudeau called it a “very, very important trade deal.” Trudeau said he, “Deplored the secrecy rather than openness and transparency” of the Harper government. Trudeau said the Liberals are for free trade. Trudeau still has two weeks to hold up his glossy 88 page platform to make the Liberal case for how it will help the middle class.
With two weeks to go in this long election campaign the polls keep showing a trend up for the Liberals, down for the NDP with Conservatives in a holding pattern. In the GTA, a series of riding polls by Forum Research show the Liberals doing very well all across the region. If the trends hold up, the Liberals could win back seats they lost in 2011 – sometimes by very narrow margins. Forum has the new riding of Markham-Stouffville going Liberal with the Conservative sitting MP, Paul Calandra, in second place. On the west side of the GTA the Liberals are leading in Mississauga-Malton and chasing the Conservative’s Bal Gosal in Brampton Centre.
Another poll raising eye brows is the Mainstream findings in Alberta. Mainstream predicts the Liberals could win seats in the province for the first time since Harper won his minority government in 2006. Earlier in the campaign there were predictions the NDP would benefit from the big win by the Alberta provincial NDP. Mainstreet said today it is the Liberals who are in second behind the Conservatives in both Edmonton and Calgary with the NDP in third place. Then, this afternoon, an Ipsos national poll shows the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie nationally. The NDP is down another five points in Quebec since last week. The NDP is still ranks number one with 29 per cent support and the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc Quebecois are all tied up at 23 per cent each.
A couple of weeks ago a pollster told me to watch how Canadians feel about their first choice for Prime Minister. He said that would be an important indicator on the outcome. The thinking being that once alone in the voting booth, facing the ballot, that question will be an important factor for the voter. Today’s Nanos poll showed Trudeau (30.2 per cent) has almost caught up to Stephen Harper (31.1 per cent.) In the last week Trudeau has jumped five points and Mulcair slipped by three points to 23.7 per cent. The NDP pointed out it only needs 35 seats to win the election. The NDP then goes on to say that Trudeau needs to win more than 100 seats. The not too subtle suggestion is the Liberals simply can’t win that many seats across the country.
The Liberal’s platform may not get the headlines the party hoped for but if that is the worst that happens to the Liberal campaign this week it might be the week the Justin Trudeau pulls away from Mulcair and becomes Canada’s choice for change. And if that happens who knows what kind of government Canada will have to debate the Trans Pacific Partnership.
