Buoyed by strong job growth and corporate profits, the Ford government says the 2019-2020 deficit has fallen from $10.3 billion to $9 billion, giving them wiggle room to cut small business income taxes and increase autism funding, but continue cutting elsewhere.
Healthcare, education, children's and social services and transit will see increases to their budgets this year, but nearly every other ministry will continue to face the axe.
The province is kicking in another $68 million to cut hospital wait times, $310 million to continue social assistance and other programs targeting low-income households with kids and an extra $279 million for families with children with autism, who were angered last year when the Ford government suddenly changed the funding formula and waitlist for therapy.
Along with transit money, increases to childcare and public health funding for cities, the province is spending $1.3 billion more than forecast in last year's budget.
They also needed to spend $227 million since March 2019 just to cover increased billing of the Ontario Health Insurance Program, likely caused by the continued ageing of the population requiring more doctors visits and hospitalization.
Finance Minister Rod Phillips says the statement sought to set a different tone for his government, where the focus is healthcare funding, education and modest "incremental" tax relief.
"This isn't about grand gestures, its about incremental but important changes that make life easier for people," he told reporters on Wednesday afternoon.
But several other ministries will still face stiff cuts.
On a day when students at three major Toronto universities held walkouts to protest post-secondary funding cuts, the fall economic statement shows the Ford government will continue with a cut to the Ontario Student Assistance Program this year, to the tune of $700 million.
Northern Affairs, Energy and Mines sees a $300 million cut for this fiscal year.
Municipal Affairs and Housing is also cut by $360 million, along with $70 million from Government and Consumer Services, and $50 million from Heritage, Tourism, Culture and Sport.
NDP leader Andrea Horwath said the whole statement released Wednesday was little more than a smokescreen.
"Delaying, backtracking or softening $1.3 billion worth of cuts is not new spending," Horwath said.
Starting on Jan. 1, 2020, Finance Minister Rod Phillips is cutting the small business tax rate from 3.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent on the first $500,000 of income.
The tax cut will cost government $20 million this year, rising to $95 million in 2021-2022.
Phillips said the cut was a boon for hiring as one-third of all private sector workers in the province are employed by small businesses that could save money with the tax cut.
The provincial government is also cutting the tax rate on aviation fuel paid by residents of northern Ontario by 60 per cent, saying anyone who flies in the north once a month could save $135 in reduced fares.
The fuel tax cut covers anyone flying from Parry Sound or Manitoulin Island to anywhere farther north.
The statement also includes language promising free admission to "museums, galleries and historic sites across the province," but no timeline or cost figure was included.
As a whole, the document projects the 2021 deficit to fall to $6.7 billion and the 2022 deficit to fall to $5.4 billion.
Revenues from personal income, sales tax and corporate income tax rose by $1.6 billion above the projections in the March 2019 budget, and cannabis sales netted the province $80 million.
The new spending is largely funded by lower interest on debt ($430 million) and "drawing on already budgeted contingency funds" from last year's reserve so actual net increase in expenses is only $341 million.
Phillips said the statement shows how he will lead the province to a balanced budget by 2023, without some of the drastic measures seen during the government's first year in office, but the search for spending reductions remains.
"We have a plan to eliminate the deficit. But it's a combination of the kinds of efficiencies we talked about and the expectation of growth."
Horwath said Wednesday's statement did little to address the litany of cuts in the 2019 budget, and called the increases to healthcare and education "a drop in the bucket."
"I don't think there's a new era in the Ford government, all the government said today was that the deep, deep cuts announced the spring will be delayed, but there will still be cuts."
Meanwhile, the provincial Liberals still contend that the Ford government did not need to change its accounting treatment of certain provincial assets including pension funds, which increased the deficit last year, and did so instead to build justification to cut spending.
"The deficit is billions lower, it's probably about half when you look at it of what the government is reporting right now," interim leader John Fraser said.
The Ford government used last year's fall statement to partially end rent controls and fire or consolidate several provincial watchdogs.
This year, there are no outright firings but instead several pilot projects.
In one program, paramedic services in several still unnamed Ontario communities will begin a pilot where some patients transported by ambulance will not be taken to a hospital emergency room but instead to "more appropriate, lower cost settings."
The province says they can instead go to a hospice, receive treatment on scene or go to mental health crisis centre.
The pilot plan starts sometime in 2020.
While they still plan to battle the federal government on the carbon tax, the Ford government plans to conduct a "province-wide climate change impact assessment" sometime in the new year.
They say they plan to hire outside experts to assess how climate change "will affect Ontario's economy, infrastructure, communities, public health and safety, as well as ecosystems."
Phillips says the climate change assessment will cost the province roughly $5 million.
