Ontario Premier Doug Ford went to Lieutenant-Governor Elizabeth Dowdeswell on Tuesday afternoon to dissolve the 42nd Parliament of Ontario. On Wednesday, the campaign for the 43rd Parliament kicks off.
The Progressive Conservatives hope to duplicate the party’s big win in 2018 and win a second majority government.
Here are five of the challenges facing the PCs on the eve of the campaign.
Defending their record
For the Tories the big difference from 2018 will be that this time the party has a record to defend. That will include its COVID-19 response, its spending priorities and the programs it either cut or created over the last four years. The Ontario budget put the focus on massive infrastructure projects the PCs have announced over the past weeks. Many of these - new highways, new transit lines, new hospitals and new housing projects - will take years to build. But it all sells the Progressive Conservative message that another Tory government will create jobs and a business friendly environment.
Affordability top of mind
The PCs know that Ontarians are concerned about rising costs and affordability issues now. The budget included a tax break for lower income earners. It then repeated promises to reduce taxes on gas over the summer and eliminate tolls on Highways 412 and 418 in Durham Region. The Tories will need to address the affordability issue during the campaign.
NDP and Liberals to push from the left
The PCs two top opponents, the NDP and the Liberals, know the party is weaker on social issues. Two years of the COVID-19 pandemic have put healthcare front and centre. The opposition parties will try to focus attention on the Ford government’s response to the rising cost of living and affordability. One example will be the ongoing staffing shortages in hospitals and the state of long-term care homes. Both the NDP and Liberals will be pushing the Tories from the left with new social spending programs.
New parties could split vote
The Tories will need to keep an eye on two right wing parties. The New Blue Ontario Party will be courting socially conservative Ontarians who have opposed the various public health restrictions imposed during the two years of the pandemic. The Ontario Party has similar policy positions. How many PC voters in 2018 shift their support to either of these newer parties is yet to be seen but it could cost the PC’s seats in a handful of close ridings.
Loss of several MPPs
Another challenge will be holding the 18 seats the PCs won in 2018 but where new Progressive Conservative candidates are running this time around. That is a high turnover rate for any government. Running for re-election is always a big advantage in Canadian politics. The Tories will have to put extra resources in some of those ridings if the party hopes to hit the magic majority number of 63.
In the coming campaign the Tories will be fending off attacks from all sides. The NDP have more money and more resources than ever before. In 2018, the NDP failed to win even one seat from the Progressive Conservatives. Holding off the NDP again this year will be critical. The PCs cannot count on the total collapse of the Liberal vote in 2018 repeating in 2022. A resurgence in Liberal fortunes in the GTA could put a number of seats at risk for the Tories.
The consensus is the PCs should still win the election. But being at the top after a landslide win usually means there is only one way to go – down. The Progressive Conservatives can lose a handful of seats they now hold and still get that majority. Picking up new ridings would signal another landslide.
