Although the Liberals and Tories are in a dead heat among voters, Tim Hudak’s PC government is edging forward among those who say they will indeed go out and cast their vote, the latest poll suggests.
An Ipsos Reid poll, commissioned by CP24 and CTV News, surveyed 2,140 Ontarians between June 4 and June 6, just after the three party leaders held their first and only televised debate.
Of those who said they have decided who to support, 35 per cent said they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives and another 35 per cent said they would vote for the Liberals. The NDP received about 26 per cent. The poll says about 12 per cent remain undecided and four per cent will vote for other interests, including the Green party.
However, of those who said nothing short of an emergency would stop them from voting, 40 per cent said they are casting their ballot for the Tories while 32 per cent said they would vote for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government. The NDP received 24 per cent support from dedicated voters.
The poll also suggests that PC supporters are the most committed to their party. Two in three (66 per cent) of voters who wave the PC flag say they are “absolutely certain” they will support the Tories on Election Day compared to the NDP (52 per cent) and Liberals (45 per cent).
Liberals ahead in 416, but Tories lead in other regions
Of those who say they are committed to getting out to vote in the 416, 44 per cent say they will be supporting the Liberals, compared to 27 per cent who say they will vote PC and 26 per cent who support the NDP.
Tories however, are ahead in the 905, and Southwestern, Central, Eastern, and Northern Ontario.
Anti-Conservative sentiment rallying
One in three say they selected a party to ensure another party does not win but among Liberal supporters, strategic voting appears to be particularly strong. About 43 per cent of Liberal supporters say they are voting for the party to stop another party from winning compared to 30 per cent of NDP supporters and 27 per cent of PC supporters.
Ontarians unwavering in their desire for change
Seven in 10 Ontarians polled say it is time for a change and want a new party in government while only 32 per cent believe Wynne’s government deserves to stay in power. However, the jury is still out on which leader will bring about the change that the province needs. Thirty per cent believe that Tim Hudak is the right person for the job, compared to Kathleen Wynne (28 per cent) and Andrea Horwath (26 per cent). Two in ten don’t believe any of the party leaders are suitable candidates to bring about positive change.
Many Ontarians still undecided
Overall, 16 per cent of those polled say they plan to make up their mind on who to support in the last week of the campaign, while 10 per cent say they likely won’t make a decision until they are in the voting booth on Election Day.
This poll is accurate to within +/-2.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
