Liberals, Conservatives looking over their shoulders as election day nears

With three days of campaigning to go, party strategists for the Liberals are looking over their left shoulder. In turn, the Conservatives are casting watchful eyes over their right shoulder.

The Liberals have to be watching the NDP poll numbers with concern. The Nanos tracking poll shows the NDP is up two and a half points since Sunday. Jagmeet Singh is challenging Justin Trudeau's call to progressive voters to stick with the Liberal Party to defeat the Conservatives.

Singh focused Thursday on ridings in and around the GTA held by the Liberals. Singh is playing offence hitting Liberal ridings with an eye to turning them for the NDP. Singh made stops in Davenport, Toronto-Danforth and Oshawa. All three ridings have elected NDP MPs in the past. Day in and day out, the NDP is sending Singh to ridings with a look to winning new seats.

Singh is polling well with women cutting into an advantage Trudeau has had over the last two elections. The NDP is pushing pocketbook issues. Again this morning, Singh made affordable housing his top issue. A CP24 Nanos poll released Thursday showed GTA voters believe Singh and the NDP have the best plan for housing. Singh doubled both Trudeau and O'Toole on this issue with 37 per cent support that he has the best housing policy. Trudeau trailed at 18 per cent, and O'Toole stood at 17 per cent.

If progressive voters stay with the NDP on Monday, it could see Liberal seats fall to the NDP. The Conservatives are hoping enough seats go NDP to help produce a Conservative minority government.

But the Conservative Party has its own problem over its right shoulder. The fact is that the party with the most momentum during this short campaign is the People's Party of Canada. Maxime Bernier's party began the race barely registering in polls and ignored by the media.

This week the PPC is polling at around seven per cent. Bernier came to the GTA Thursday, and the news cameras are now following him. Because Bernier is not following COVID-19 rules – he opposes vaccines - he drew sizable crowds in Hamilton and Oakville. The PPC has its eye on a couple of seats, but most pundits think the PPC will be lucky to win even one. Bernier once held the riding of Beauce for the Conservatives, but he is considered a long shot to win his Quebec seat this year.

In Oakville Thursday morning, Bernier asked the crowd if it wanted "more government control or more freedom." He then said voters across the country are "counting on us" to protect freedom.

Bernier is trolling for votes in GTA ridings like Oakville that could cost the Conservatives. One pollster said the PPC is "having a real impact" from coast to coast. Another poll watcher went further. Nick Kouvalis looked at the numbers and concluded the "PPC is poised to give Trudeau's Liberal Party another government."

O'Toole was asked about the potential impact of the PPC on Conservative fortunes on Monday. O'Toole told those PPC supporters, "We know you're frustrated, which is why we have a plan to get our country back on its feet, which is why we have a plan to restore accountability and clean up the corruption around Mr. Trudeau."

Later O'Toole repeated his message. "If people are frustrated with Mr. Trudeau, there is one option to replace Mr. Trudeau. Canada's conservatives and I asked for their trust."

The polls have had the Liberals and Conservatives hovering in the low 30's since the start of the campaign. They've traded the lead a few times, but neither has been able to break away.

That suggests Canadians are looking at their other options. It increases the stakes for everyone as the campaign enters its final weekend.