A provincial budget that invests billions in child care, health care and new supports for seniors appears to have done little to boost the electoral fortunes of Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, according to a new poll.
The Mainstreet Research poll of 1,969 adults has found that Doug Ford and the Tories have the support of 50.3 per cent of decided or leaning voters compared to 23.9 per cent for Wynne’s Liberals and 18.3 per cent for Andrea Horwath and the NDP. The Green Party had the support of 5.2 per cent of voters while another 2.4 per cent of voters said that they intend to cast a ballot for another party.
When broken down on a region-by region basis things appeared even worse for the Liberals.
The poll found that the party trails the Tories in every jurisdiction, including in their usual stronghold of Toronto, where they had the support of 33.3 per cent of decided or leaning voters compared to 42.8 per cent for the PC party. The NDP polled third in Toronto with about 17.5 per cent of the vote. In the GTA, support for the Tories shot up to 56 per cent while support for the Liberals lagged to 25.8 per cent. The NDP were a distant third in the GTA with the support of 13.9 per cent of all voters.
"Our poll shows that the budget has so far not moved the needle in favour of the Liberals," President and CEO of Mainstreet Research Quito Maggi said in a press release. "While it may give them a boost during the election when more voters are paying attention, there is no evidence that shows the budget has given the Wynne Liberals the shot in the arm that they badly need at this time."
Mainstreet Vice President Joseph Angolano said the promises may be actually taking the wind out of the Liberals’ sails.
“We just can’t find any evidence that all of the promises that are in the budget laid out by Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals are not having an effect, and are probably having a negative effect in overall public support.”
More than half of voters less likely to vote for Liberals after budget
While there were was one poll released in the days after the budget that indicated that the Liberals had closed the gap on the PC party, the Mainstreet Research survey seems to cast some doubt on that.
The poll asked respondents whether they were more less likely to support the party in light of the budget and 53.1 per cent of them said that they were less likely compared to 20.4 per cent that they said they were more likely. A further 14.2 per cent of respondents said that he budget would have no effect on their vote.
The budget also appears to have further emboldened those identifying as PC supporters with 81. 9 per cent of that group saying that it made them less likely to consider voting Liberal compared to just 2.5 per cent who said it made them more likely.
“You really don’t go up from here, you can only go down,” Angolano said of the PC’s standing with its existing supporters.
Plurality of respondents dislike both Wynne and Ford
If there was one bit of good news for the good news for the governing Liberals in the Mainstreet Research poll, it was the relative unpopularity of Ford.
The poll found that 43.6 per cent of respondents had an unfavourable opinion of the PC leader compared to 37.3 per cent who had a favourable opinion of him and 16.1 per cent who weren’t sure how they felt.
Wynne, however, was by far the most unpopular candidate with 67.4 per cent of respondents expressing an unfavourable opinion about her compared to 20.7 per cent who had a favourable one. About 9.6 per cent of respondents said they weren’t sure how to feel about Wynne.
"We have never seen a party lead by such a large margin and their leader have a net negative favourability rating at the same time this close to the start of a campaign," Maggi said in the press release. "Ontario voters are not in love with Doug Ford, but they are in an angry and ornery mood and seem ready to vote for the PCs just because they are not the Liberals."
The poll was conducted on April 3 and 4th. It is considered accurate to within 2.21 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
