Thomas Mulcair’s NDP continues to gain support at the expense of the Conservatives, and is now enjoying the support necessary to form a majority government, a new poll suggests.
Forty per cent of respondents to a poll conducted by Forum Research on Aug. 23 to Aug. 24 said they would vote for the NDP or are leaning that way, compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals and 23 per cent for the Conservatives.
“What we are seeing here are the cumulative results of the Duffy trial and its corrosive effect on the Conservative brand,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a news release. “Moreover, all the progressives in Canada are gathering under the New Democrat banner. The scale of volatility, of voter movement, we are seeing in this campaign, is truly epic.”
The poll puts the NDP in first place in Ontario with 36 per cent support, dominant in Quebec with 54 per cent of the vote, and leading in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The Liberals retain their lead in the Atlantic provinces and the Conservatives are still ahead in Alberta.
The poll also found that 40 per cent of past Conservative voters intend to vote for someone else this time, while 28 per cent of past Liberal voters intend to vote for the NDP.
Half of respondents said they felt Canada is heading in the wrong direction, with more than 50 per cent of voters aged 18-34, men, and wealthy Canadians agreeing with that statement.
Forum’s seat projection based on this poll gives the NDP 174 of 338 seats, the Conservatives 87 seats and the Liberals 76 seats. Green Party leader Elizabeth May is expected to keep her seat.
“Unfortunately for them, with the new seat allocation, (the Liberals’) newfound popularity will not vault them out of third party position,” Bozinoff said.
The poll, which reached 1,440 Canadian adults via robo-call, has a margin of error of +/- three per cent, 19 times out of 20.
