New modelling data released by the province shows that in all possible scenarios, the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units at Ontario hospitals will exceed 300 within the next 10 days and that number could surpass 1,500 by mid-January under the worst-case scenario.

By Jan. 24, the modelling table projects that the province could see around 6,000 new COVID-19 infections per day with three per cent case growth, close to 14,000 new cases per day with five per cent case growth, and nearly 30,000 cases per day if the province were to see a staggering seven per cent case growth.

Less than two weeks ago, members of the modelling table warned that Ontario was on track to see roughly 5,000 daily cases of COVID-19 by Jan. 8 but the rate of transmission has slowed since that time.

Over the past 14 days, Ontario has seen a little more than one per cent case growth per day and if the province maintains that level of transmission, the number of daily cases by the end of January would be close to 3,000.

Under the most likely scenario, the modellers say, we will see more than 50 new deaths per day in the province in February.

Over the past four weeks, the province says there has been close to a 70 per cent increase in hospitalizations and an 83 per cent increase in ICU patients with COVID-19.

According to the latest data released by the province today, there are now 265 people infected with COVID-19 who are receiving treatment in intensive care units at Ontario hospitals.

With three per cent case growth, ICU capacity in the province’s hospitals will approach 600 in one month from now and under all scenarios, the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care will exceed 300 in less than two week’s time.

“This means that we will see cancellations of surgeries, we see reductions in access to necessary care and we will see the risk of delayed access to intensive care unit care for people who truly need it immediately under any of these scenarios,” Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the province’s COVID-19 science table, said at Monday’s news conference.

“And this impact is heavily clustered in a relatively small number of hospitals in our most hard-hit communities.”

He said it is not simply a matter of having enough beds in intensive care units.

“There is highly trained staff that are needed… and even with new staffing models where we use people who don’t work in intensive care units to provide this care, you will see a corresponding reduction in access to other procedures,” he said.

“So regardless there will be a significant impact on access to care.”

Overall occupancy in Ontario hospital ICUs for all reasons, not just COVID-19, hit 1,760 last week, which several doctors told CP24 was a record for the year.

The province’s experts warn that while the per cent positivity appears to be flattening in Ontario, the ability “to control case growth is still precarious.”

'Hard lockdown' needed to reduce cases

Brown said in other jurisdictions around the world, case growth did not begin to decline until some form of a "hard lockdown" was implemented.

The province notes that a four-to-six week hard lockdown, such as the ones implemented in France and Australia, could reduce the number of new cases in Ontario to less than 1,000 per day and “possibly much lower” with more testing and support.

According to the province, under the three per cent case growth scenario, a hard lockdown in Ontario could bring the number of daily infections down to below 1,000 cases per day by Jan. 26 and less than 500 cases per day by Feb. 12.

“Based on experience in France and Australia, hard lockdowns, very stringent lockdowns, and very strong communication of four to six weeks, can reduce case numbers in Ontario,” Brown said.

“The duration of the lockdown is very important. The starting level of cases for the lockdown is very important.”

He noted that the earlier the lockdown begins the better.

“Even if we saw zero per cent growth in the overall number of cases between now and Dec. 28, starting earlier, starting today, would still reduce the total number of cases by 800 by Dec. 31… by the end of next month, it would reduce it by over 11,000 cases,” Brown said.

“If you look at the more negative scenarios in terms of growth, if we started on the 21st instead of on the 28th, and we had about five per cent case growth going into the lockdown, you would see over 45,000 fewer cases in the province, with a significant impact in terms of reduced mortality and… lower ICU use.”

When asked what a “hard lockdown” looked like in other jurisdictions, Brown used France and Australia as an example.

“There is differences between Australia and France, but there are some consistencies as well,” he said.

“In both jurisdictions, they saw really kind of strong stay-at-home directions… stopping people going to work if they can work at home, it was very strong control about traffic and gathering, for instance both jurisdictions used curfews.”

He added that both jurisdictions also closed non-essential businesses and were effective at clearly communicating the seriousness of the situation.

"We don't believe anything less than four weeks will be effective," Brown said when asked about how long a hard lockdown should be in place in Ontario.

"They (case numbers) won't start coming down at the beginning of the lockdown necessarily... but they will come down over time."

The stark new projections are the reason the Ford government has introduced a provincewide lockdown starting on Dec. 26, forcing all non-essential businesses to close for 28 days in the southern and eastern parts of the province and 14 days in northern Ontario.

"We are in a very, very challenging and precarious situation," Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate chief medical officer of health, said at the news conference on Monday morning.

“We do need to have measures that will reduce people interacting with people that don't live in their household.”