"There is anti-Americanism in Canada. But not enough to get you elected dogcatcher."
– Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. The day after the 1988 federal election.
The CP24 riding map of the GTHA comes in at 58 electoral districts. And with 50 days until the election the NDP still need to nominate 25 candidates. The Green party ranks better with candidates now nominated in 42 ridings. The Conservatives have a full slate of candidates now and the Liberals have three nominations still up for grabs.
September 30 is the deadline for nominations so there’s lots of time to formally fill their slates. But it takes time to get a local campaign organized so the lack of candidates does not bode well for the NDP and Greens in the GTHA.
In 51 of the 58 seats the incumbent is running for re-election. But a closer look reveals some interesting races to watch.
One everyone will be watching carefully is Markham-Stouffville. Jane Philpott won the riding for the Liberals from the Conservatives in 2015. But then, this spring, she was forced out of the Liberal caucus after the SNC Lavelin scandal and will run as an independent this year. The Liberals have nominated Helena Jaczek, a former Minister of Health in Ontario. Theodore Antony is the Conservative candidate. Running as an independent will make this an uphill race for Philpott.
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill is another odd race. Leona Alleslev narrowly won the seat for the Liberals in 2015. But she crossed the floor last September and joined the Conservative Party. At the time Alleslev said, “our country is at risk. My attempts to raise my concerns with this government were met with silence.” The Liberals nominated Leah Taylor Roy and this should be a straight up Conservative versus Liberal race.
There are six ridings where incumbent Liberal MPs are not running this time.
In Whitby Celina Caesar-Chavannes won the seat for the Liberals but also left the party to sit as an independent. Caesar-Chavannes will not be running this time. In 2015 she won by a couple of thousand votes over the Conservatives. So this could be a 905 riding for the Conservatives to target.
In Newmarket Liberal MP Kyle Peterson is not running. Lois Brown held this riding for the Conservatives and she will be back running against Tony Van Bynen, a former Mayor of Newmarket. I predict we’ll see Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives Andrew Scheer making stops here in the coming weeks.
In Don Valley North Liberal Geng Tan will not be in this race. Oddly, the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate here. The riding boundaries were drawn up in 2015 so it is difficult to predict which way it will swing on October 21.
No question about it Etobicoke Centre will be one to watch. The riding seesaws between the Liberals and Conservatives. Liberal Borys Wrzesnewskyj is not running and the Liberals have nominated a former Ontario MPP Yvan Baker. Baker will take on former Conservative one-term MP, Ted Optiz.
In Brampton East the NDP have high hopes of taking the Liberal seat. Raj Grewal won it in 2015 but is not running. The riding was home to NDP leader Jagmeet Singh when he was in the Ontario Legislature. But it is worth noting that in 2015 this was a solid Liberal win with Grewal getting more votes than the Conservatives and NDP combined.
MP John Oliver is not running for the Liberals in Oakville. This was a Liberal gain from the Conservatives in 2015 and it is one the Conservative loser in that race, Terrance Young, is in the hunt to win it back.
The last GTHA riding without the incumbent running is Hamilton Centre. This has been held by the NDP’s David Christopherson for 15 years with big election margins. The NDP hope Mathew Green, a city councilor in Hamilton, will be able to hold the seat.
The Liberals had a very, very good 2015 election in the GTHA. Most politicos predict they will lose seats on October 21. Some go on to say how many will decide which party gets to form the next government.
P.M. quote of the day. Who said?
"Jobs! Jobs for hundreds of thousands of Canadians. A new vision. A new hope."
