Ontario avoided at least 2,700 hospitalizations and possible ensuing deaths among elderly people because of its COVID-19 vaccine rollout between Dec. 2020 and mid-August, a new report by Public Health Ontario says.
The provincial agency says that among people aged 70 and up, Ontario would have seen at least 2,759 more hospitalizations and/or associated deaths without the COVID-19 vaccination program.
But they stress this figure is an absolute baseline estimate and the real number of “severe outcomes” avoided is likely higher.
“Since only the direct effects of vaccination are estimated in this analysis (e.g., indirect effects such as reduced transmission are not included) the reduction in cases and severe outcomes are likely to be underestimates,” the authors write in the report.
More than 92 per cent of people 80 and up were fully vaccinated as of Aug. 16, as well as 93.5 per cent for those aged 70 to 79.
The report does not specify exactly how many deaths were avoided due to vaccination, but since last year, approximately 22.4 per cent of all cases involving people age 80 and up resulted in death, based on previously released statistics.
Public Health Ontario says about 5,000 cases in the 70+ cohort were avoided, suggesting at least several hundred lives were saved.
Across all adults in the province, the report says at least 37,408 cases were avoided due to vaccination.
Applied to the province’s current observed case fatality rate of 1.7 per cent, this suggests a bare minimum of 636 lives were saved by the vaccination program.
Ontario has confirmed 9,472 deaths due to COVID-19 since March 2020, including 5,693 in people age 80 and up.
At least 3,976 of the deaths involved residents of the long-term care system, the majority of which are 70 and up.
More than 83 per cent of eligible Ontario residents have at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 76 per cent are fully immunized.
But earlier this week, Ontario officials said they wished to see 90 per cent of the eligible population fully vaccinated, and even that may not be enough to ensure transmission enters long-term decline.
Mass vaccination clinics and pop-ups dominated rollout
Public Health Ontario also said that of the 20.1 million COVID-19 vaccines doses administered to date, more than half – 10.9 million – were administered at a mass vaccination clinic or mobile pop-up.
Another 3.4 million doses were delivered at pharmacies, and 3.5 million were administered at hospitals.
Doctors’ offices saw another 601,000 shots administered and long-term care, retirement residences and other congregate settings hosted nearly 375,000 shots.
