For the sixth consecutive day, Ontario is reporting fewer than 4,000 new COVID-19 cases, further indication that the number of new infections could be plateauing in the province.
Provincial health officials are reporting 3,887 new cases today, up slightly from the 3,871 reported on Thursday but down from the 4,505 confirmed one week ago.
The rolling seven-day average of new infections is now 3,722, down from 4,132 last Friday.
With 53,074 tests processed over the past 24 hours, the provincewide positivity rate is 7.4 per cent today, declining from 8.8 per cent last week.
Another 21 virus-related deaths were confirmed over the past 24 hours and the average daily death toll is now 27, unchanged from the average recorded seven days ago.
The number of active, lab-confirmed cases in Ontario stands at 38,062, down from 41,735 last week.
The latest case count reported on Friday comes one day after the release of new modelling that suggested that the third wave of the pandemic may be “cresting” and that daily case counts could dip to 1,000 to 2,000 within a month.
However despite some positive signs that case growth has slowed, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases expert and member of Ontario's vaccine distribution task force, said the province is still nowhere near where it needs to be.
"In most regions, the numbers are headed in a downward trajectory. It's hard to argue that that's not a good sign, because it is. But we are still very far from where we need to be," he told CP24 on Friday.
"The hospital system is still overwhelmed. We know that hospitalizations and ICU stays are a lagging indicator, meaning it takes a couple of weeks before we start to see improvements in that after case counts start to decline."
Hospitalizations are down week-over week but the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care remains alarmingly high. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Health today, there are 2,201 people infected with COVID-19 who are receiving treatment at Ontario hospitals, including 883 in the ICU. COVID-19 ICU admissions are down by one today from 884 on Thursday but up from 818 last week.
The vast majority of new infections continue to be concentrated in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Of the new cases reported today, 1,331 are in Toronto, 871 are in Peel Region, 267 are in York Region, 208 are in Durham Region, and 204 are in Hamilton.
Officials hope an influx in vaccine supply over the next two months will have a substantial impact on case numbers in the province.
On Thursday, the provincial government announced that thanks to a boost in supply of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, officials expect that every adult in the province will be able to book an appointment for a shot by the week of May 24.
Over the next two weeks, the province will be diverting 50 per cent of all incoming doses to hot spot neighbourhoods, including many in Toronto and Peel Region.
The numbers used in this story are found in the Ontario Ministry of Health's COVID-19 Daily Epidemiologic Summary. The number of cases for any city or region may differ slightly from what is reported by the province, because local units report figures at different times.
