Ontario's COVID-19 death toll has now surpassed 5,000 as the province sets a record for the number of people hospitalized with the disease.

Provincial health officials are reporting 3,338 new infections today, down from the record 3,945 logged on Sunday but up slightly from the 3,270 confirmed one week ago.

Twenty-nine more virus-related deaths were reported today, pushing the cumulative death toll to 5,012. Fourteen of the deaths confirmed today are among residents of long-term care homes in the province and there are now more than 3,000 long-term care residents in Ontario who have died after contracting the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The province also reported a record 256 active outbreaks in long-term care homes today, up from 233 one week ago.

Virus-related hospitalizations have also now hit 1,563, a new record in Ontario. Seven days ago, the province said there were 1,190 patients with COVID-19 receiving treatment at provincial hospitals.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Health, 387 patients with COVID-19 are being treated in intensive care units, nearly 50 more patients than the number in ICU last week. The province has conceded that the data it reports each day lags information reported by individual hospitals and local public health units. Critical Care Services Ontario said Monday that the most up-to-date data suggests there are at least 409 COVID-19 patients in ICU units at Ontario hospitals.

Of the new cases reported today, 931 are in Toronto, 531 are in Peel Region, 241 are in York Region, 168 are in Niagara Region, and 165 are in Waterloo Region.

The seven-day average of new infections is now 3,555, up from 2,982 one week ago. With 46,403 tests completed over the past 24 hours, a slight uptick in testing compared to the previous Monday, the provincewide positivity rate is now 7.7 per cent, down from 9.7 per cent last week.

Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate chief medical of health, said the daily case counts over the past few days are "at a level that should make everyone worry, take notice, and take assertive action."

"The transmission of COVID-19 is widespread and outbreaks are increasing. In just the last 7 days, we have reported 330 new outbreaks with over 50 per cent occurring in a vulnerable sector," she said at a news conference on Monday afternoon. 

"The number of people who have lost their lives remains unbearably high. In fact, COVID-19 morbidity and mortality are at the highest levels we've seen since the start of the pandemic and our hospital and ICU capacity are under increasing pressure and strain."

She said the province is now seeing the impact the holiday season has had on transmission, which has shown "substantial growth in the period between Christmas and New Year's."

"In the coming days, we will continue to see the impact of New Year's Eve as we approach the two-week incubation period this Friday," she said. "Urgent action is required to address these worsening trends in our key public health indicators."

ICUs could be at capacity by end of month

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases expert and member of the province's COVID-19 vaccine task force, said while the surge in new infections is not unexpected after the holidays, the situation is nonetheless "dire."

"When you see some of the modelling results, the early snippets of data from the modeling that has been done, they are projecting upwards of 6,000 new cases per day in Ontario if nothing changes and the ICUs full to capacity by the end of the month or early February," he said.

"We are providing less care... They are ramping down care for scheduled surgeries and other services just to accommodate the influx of cases with COVID-19."

Dr. Michael Warner, the medical director of critical care at Michael Garron Hospital, said hospitals may soon be in a position where they have to prioritize COVID-19 patients who are more likely to survive their infection.

"Once we get to the 550 number, which we will exceed for sure, that is where a potential triage protocol could be implemented whereby patients who are more likely to survive their COVID-19 or other illness will be given life support preferentially over others if those resources are not available for everybody," he said.

"That is a situation we all want to avoid. This is a serious threat to the health and wellbeing of Ontarians and it is to our hospital system as well. We want to be able to care for everybody and we don’t want to be in a position where we may have to turn people away."

Premier Doug Ford’s cabinet will be meeting tonight to consider a number of new measures to curb community transmission after health officials worked through the weekend to develop a new strategy to bring daily case counts under control.

Yaffe confirmed that a curfew is not one of the measures the province will be considering at this time.

"Cabinet will be considering a number of recommendations later today and tomorrow we will be able to provide you with not only our new modelling projections, but also specific details about what measures will be put in place," she said. "It is not going to be an easy few weeks but what these trends demonstrate is that further actions are necessary."

*Numbers included in this story came from data released by Ontario's Ministry of Health at 10:30 a.m.