The Farmers' Almanac has released its 2023 summer forecast, and, according to the long-range forecaster, Ontario could be in for some “hot and soggy” summer months.

Utilizing methods held by the periodical for more than 200 years, The Farmers' Almanac is predicting Ontario and the Great Lakes region will see both hot temperatures and higher-than-usual precipitation this summer and that a “warm-to-hot, soggy” season is in store for the province. 

Ontario summer 2023 forecast


Canada will see a warmer-than-normal summer overall, according to the Almanac’s formula.

While the forecast is preliminary, Environment Canada senior meteorologist David Phillips says it's in line with Canada's increasingly hotter temperatures over the last 20 years as the effects of climate change create a new normal for our summer weather.

"In recent years, our summers have been warmer, the world has been warmer, there's summer fever going on in the world," Phillips told in a phone interview last week. "Our summers have been really, without question, warmer in recent years and it fits the global pattern."

Environment Canada will release its own summer forecast at the end of May. Phillips says their preliminary forecast also shows a warmer-than-normal summer for the majority of Canada.

While Ontario will experience bouts of high temperatures in between scattered precipitation, it could be slightly milder than areas like the prairies or Quebec, the Almanac said.

Temperatures are predicted to spike, bringing hot and dry weather to the province, in mid-July, with the periodical forecasting hotter than normal stretches from July 16 to 19, then again from July 28 to 31.

In August, the Almanac said the 4th to the 8th, and the 24th to the 27th will be particularly hot. If their formula proves accurate, this means the province will see a hot, but fair August long weekend.


The Great Lakes region will see higher than normal rainfall in the summer months, according to the Almanac’s formula, combined with significant storm activity.

This doesn't necessarily mean temperatures will drop though. Ontarians can expect humid, hot weather even in times of precipitation.

The first week of summer will be welcomed by about 10 days of showers and thunderstorms, according to the Almanac. From June 20 to 23, the periodical forecast “dangerous thunderstorms” will sweep into western Ontario

Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue into July and August as well. From Aug. 1 and 3, “torrential downpours” are predicted. Then, from Aug. 16 to 19, the Almanac says the province will see “violent thunderstorms.”

Thunderstorms are also forecast for Ontario's Labour Day weekend, from Sept. 2 to 4.

Summer will officially end in Ontario on Sept. 23. The final weeks of the season are expected to be scattered with storms, tapering into chillier fall weather.

With files from's Melissa Lopez-Martinez.