COVID-19 variants of concern make up over 60 per cent of coronavirus cases in Simcoe Muskoka, concerning the region's top doctor and prompting him to recommend the move back to the grey-lockdown zone of the province's reopening framework.

Dr. Charles Gardner, the medical officer of health for Simcoe Muskoka, held a news conference Sunday afternoon to provide his reasons for the recommendation as he said many in his community wanted to know why.

The doctor said since the announcement of the move on Friday, he received calls from local officials and e-mails from small businesses. The province used its emergency brake, placing Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit and Thunder Bay District Health Unit into the most restrictive category of its coloured-tiered framework for COVID-19 restrictions.

"And I feel that it's really important that I speak to the community about this," Gardner said.

"I've read through perhaps 100 e-mails from people from the community, business owners and people whose work will be discontinued with this order. People who've expressed concern about their livelihood, about being able to make ends meet, about keeping their businesses running, about the value of their businesses. Fitness facility operators who point out that what they do is very good for people and their well-being."

While he understands and admitted it is "emotionally hard" to read the struggles of many businesses in the region, Gardner said the threat of COVID-19 variants in the community worries him. He noted that the region has the highest number of cases that have screened positive for a variant of concern than any other health unit in the province.

"The data that we've got now shows that we've got over 60 per cent of our COVID cases being either the U.K. variant or a variant of concern awaiting that confirmation. Considering all of that, I made the recommendation to the province that they would look to a means of better control [of] what's happening," he said.

Last week, provincial modellers indicated that COVID-19 variants will likely make up 40 per cent of all COVID-19 cases by the second week of March.

Since the B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the United Kingdom, was detected in a long-term care home in Barrie, the region has seen a spread of the variants in other facilities and workplaces. There are currently 185 confirmed cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in Simcoe Muskoka.

"The characteristics of this strain are very serious, that it spreads very readily, that it is more severe in its impact," Gardner said.

"These facilities have work environments that include manufacturing and included financial service office. They've included a restaurant; they've included an agricultural facility. And now we have a childcare facility that's affected and a school exposure situation. And we've had an apartment complex with 25 individuals infected and one death."

Gardner also noted that they are monitoring a growing number of variant cases that are not linked to any outbreak, which concerns him.

He said the cases declined when the region was shut down as the framework, which does not take into account the variants, was not effective.

"It was really only the shutdown that kept it under control. And in particular, I feel that the stay-at-home order was key to that," Gardner said.

The doctor did admit that the increase of variant cases cannot be attributed to Simcoe Muskoka coming out of the shutdown. The region was moved to the red zone on Feb. 16. He also said that case counts declined last week.

"I was more concerned just that variant itself was having its impact and was concerned all the more that coming out of shutdown would further augment what we were seeing," he said.

Looking back, the doctor said it would have been easier if the province placed Simcoe Muskoka in the grey zone in the first place.

Gardner acknowledged that there is no perfect way to deal with the pandemic, saying that COVID-19 has affected many people's lives.

"All of us with the restrictions on our lives and reduced quality of life for us all in our reduced ability to see and be with loved ones and friends and then those who run businesses and having them endangered, or those who have had a great reduction in their income or loss of their income that has been part of the harm that's come with the pandemic," he said.

Vaccinating people, he said, "will be our very best bet for bringing this under control."

"We need to proceed over the weeks and months to come to protect everybody so that we can start to back away from all these control measures that are harmful in so many ways."

Barrie mayor wants modified grey zone

The mayor of Barrie wrote a letter to the province on Sunday, asking that restrictions in the lockdown zone be modified to allow small businesses in his city to operate.

Mayor Jeff Lehman wrote that some aspects of the framework "are unjustified and damaging particularly to the small business community in Barrie."

"If all retail environments are able to remain open with reduced capacity, there seems little reason why other small businesses cannot remain open with the same protective measures in place," Lehman wrote.

"I believe my asks are reasonable, and the province has demonstrated previously their ability to move quickly in adjusting regulations."

In the grey-lockdown zone, retail establishments are permitted to operate but with a limited capacity of 25 per cent unless they predominantly sell groceries, in which case they can have 50 per cent of their regular capacity.

Lehman said many local businesses have been supportive and complied with public health measures throughout the pandemic. But with another lockdown looming, he said many could lose their livelihood.

"Many of these businesses, such as photographers, are sole proprietors who work with single customers at a time. Others, such as indoor recreation facilities, have enough space for every customer to maintain an extremely large area – far more so than many open retail outlets. Restaurants are also being forced to abandon inventory and lay off staff," Lehman wrote.

In a news release issued Saturday by the owner of North Swing Golf Lounge in Barrie, he said over 100 businesses in Simcoe Muskoka are calling on Lehman and other officials to urge the province not to place the region back in the grey zone.

"With almost a year since the beginning of public health restrictions, Simcoe Muskoka businesses have demonstrated that they can remain open safely. Moving the region in to grey will result in unnecessary closure of dozens of local businesses and will be devastating to the local economy," said Emil Kamel, the owner of the golf facility.

‘We need to continue to follow his advice’

While some local officials have expressed their frustration about being placed in lockdown again, the mayor of Innisfil told CP24 Sunday afternoon that people need to continue to listen to experts and follow their advice.

"And if Dr. Gardner is telling us that this will help prevent a third wave if we catch it early, then I think we have to continue to follow his advice," Mayor Lynn Dollin said.

With that said, the mayor noted that the decision is "heartbreaking" for many businesses in her town.

"The good news is we do live in a really caring community. Many residents were able to order takeout and supporting local businesses," Dollin said.

"But we do continue to hear from those who struggle, and the town is doing everything we can to support our businesses and our residents through this very difficult time."

She said COVID-19 is a marathon, and the finish line is in sight, with vaccines around the corner. That's why she said people need to stay on track and prevent another shutdown.

Dollin hopes the emergency brake could help them from further spread of variants in the region.

"We're hoping if we put this emergency brake on, we can stop that from happening and kind of get ahead of it, get ahead of a big surge in those cases," she said.

"I know how hard it's been on everybody. I get the phone calls. And it is heart-wrenching, and I feel for all of the people in our community. But we are in this together and we have to continue that way."