Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg have been under a microscope for some time, with the two star wingers considered front-runners to be the No. 1 pick in June’s NHL draft.
The Toronto Maple Leafs won Tuesday’s draft lottery and will make that selection a little over seven weeks from now.
The club will be dealing with slim margins when trying to distinguish between McKenna and Stenberg.
“When you have two very similar players, you can see why, what may have felt like a consensus for one player may have become a lot less about that because they are similar players and they play similar, they play the same position,” TSN director of scouting Craig Button said. “And they provide offence in similar fashions.”
McKenna had been the consensus No. 1 pick for a long period of time before the 2025-26 season began.
However, Stenberg has impressed since and catapulted himself into the conversation through his play in the Swedish Hockey League and the world junior championship.
Stenberg, 18, had 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games with Frolunda, scoring the fifth-most points by an 18-year-old in the SHL and the most since Daniel Sedin (42) and Henrik Sedin (34) in 1998-99. The five-foot-11, 183-pound Stenberg also helped Sweden win gold at the world juniors, tying for the team lead with 10 points (four goals, six assists) in seven games, including a goal and two assists in the final.
“(I) think Stenberg is a more complete player right now. I think his compete level is a little higher,” Sportsnet draft analyst Sam Consentino said. “I think the offence for McKenna is absolutely elite, the best that this draft class has available and he has a pretty big margin in that department over the rest of the field.”
McKenna, 18, made the jump to the NCAA, joining Penn State after a historic season with the Western Hockey League’s Medicine Hat Tigers. He had an especially strong second half of the season and finished with 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) — 31 of which came in his last 17 games — in 35 outings.
The five-foot-11, 170-pound McKenna led Canada to bronze at the world juniors, finishing with 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in seven games.
“I use Patrick Kane as a type of player that McKenna is,” Button said. “He might not be the fastest guy, but he’s fast enough. His creativity is fantastic, his imagination is fantastic.
“He really knows how to create offence in a lot of different ways. And like Patrick Kane, they’re elusive and evasive. Really hard to read what they’re going to do.”
Toronto entered the lottery with the fifth-highest odds at 8.5 per cent. The San Jose Sharks will pick second, while the Vancouver Canucks dropped to third after holding the top odds.
“I think when it comes to Gavin, people are going to be more afraid of what the upside would be than they are confident in the two-way game that Stenberg will bring,” Consentino said. “So as a scout, you also have to look a little bit of what your organization needs.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 5, 2026.
