Sabres host Canadiens in do-or-die Game 7; here’s a preview

It’s game seven... Again.

The Montreal Canadiens again failed to close out the series at the Bell Centre in Game 6 for the second series in a row.

In round one, the Tampa Bay Lightning pulled out a 1-0 overtime defensive masterclass from both sides to force a Game 7.

In the second round, the Buffalo Sabres let in three goals on three shots before coming from behind to blow the Habs out of the St. Lawrence River 8-3, to force tonight’s final game of the series.

“The Canadiens were able to take advantage of a goaltender that wasn’t ready in Alex Lyon, but it didn’t mean the rest of the team of the Sabres weren’t ready,” said TSN 690 Radio host Sean Campbell. “They were down 3-1, and then they rattled off seven straight goals. They played with desperation; their backs were up against the wall.”

Shots, blocks and +/-

The series, Campbell said, has been more wide open than the one against the Lightning with more offence and more goals.

The Canadiens top line has scored and has been effective in some games this series, but the trio whose names are on the backs of a lot of fans replica sweaters in the stands also get scored on a lot.

“It’s been a bit of a struggle, five on five, they have been dangerous, but that’s the line that you want to see take over in Game 7,” said Campbell

Their plus/minus numbers in the playoffs are as follows: Juraj Slafkovsky (-8), Cole Caufield (-7) and Nick Suzuki (-5).

Compare those stats to the admittedly larger sample size regular season: Slafkovsky (9), Caufield (29) and Suzuki (37).

Buffalo’s top line, for comparison: Zach Benson (7), Josh Norris (3), and Tage Thompson (1).

One stat in each game that matches the final scoreline in all but one game is blocked shots.

Mike Matheson (36) is leading the playoffs, Alexandre Carrier (30) is third, and Kaiden Guhle (25) is sixth.

Conor Timmins is tied with Carrier, and Mattias Samuelsson is just behind Guhle with 23.

Team-wise, generally, the team that blocks wins.

Buffalo defenders put their bodies on the line 18 times to Montreal’s nine in Game 6. In the Habs’ win on Thursday, Montreal had 25 blocked shots to Buffalo’s 11. The game before, when Buffalo won, the Sabres had 27 blocked shots to the Canadiens’ six.

Here are the stats:

“It’s just a commitment to defence in your own zone,” said Campbell. “Your defensive structure may fall, but you’re going to put your body on the line to block that shot. Ideally, you’re just putting your body on the line to force them to pass it where they don’t want to go. That is, you know, the defensive structure that most teams want. But if the shots come in your way, you’re not getting out of the way. Both coaches, Lindy Ruff and Martin St-Louis, really dial in on the shot blocks.”

Compare blocked shots to wins to shots on goal, which no announcer can stop talking about.

As for home ice, both Buffalo and Montreal have five away wins and two at home in the playoffs.

“The Canadiens were one of the better road teams during the regular season, and that goes to coaching, coaching in Martin St-Louis, structure, lineup matchups, because you don’t have last change, the choices you make of who you put out on the ice for how long; I think Martin St-Louis has really good pulse of that,” said Campbell. “The Canadiens, they’ve been really good after a win, after a loss on home ice on the road, they’re able to recalibrate and be the team that they want to be.”

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Seventh heaven history

To repeat from last round with some updates...

After beating the Lightning in Tampa Bay, the Habs have now played in 25 game sevens, according to the site Statmuse, and won 16. Montreal was the road team in 14 and won eight of those.

Montreal is on a three-game winning streak - Tampa Bay (2026), Toronto Maple Leafs (2021), Boston Bruins (2014) - and won all of those games by the exact same score: 3-1.

Since the turn of the century, the Canadiens have played in eight game sevens. All but one of those (Boston, 2011) have been on the road, and the Habs have won seven, including two in 2010 during that epic Habs run:

• 2004: 2-1 win at Boston
• 2008: 5-0 win versus Boston
• 2010: 2-1 win at Washington
• 2010: 5-2 win at Pittsburgh
• 2011: 4-3 loss at Boston
• 2014: 3-1 win at Boston
• 2021: 3-1 win at Toronto
• 2026: 3-1 win at Tampa Bay

Since Buffalo entered the league in 1970, the Sabres have played in seven game sevens. The team’s only win was in 1997 when they beat Ottawa 3-2.

The Sabres have not hosted a seventh game since 2001 when Pittsburgh beat them 3-2.

As noted, Buffalo’s last Game 7 was also the team’s last playoff game before the city’s 15-year drought, when the Flyers beat them 5-2 in 2011.

Game time is 7:30 p.m.