With four points and a goal differential of plus-6, Canada has a more than 99 per cent chance of advancing to the Round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Their seeding and opponent for the next round, though, remains very much up in the air ahead of a crucial clash with Switzerland to determine the Group B winner on Wednesday.
Entering Wednesday’s game, Canada sits atop Group B on goal differential and will clinch the top spot with a win or draw on Wednesday. A loss would likely drop the team second in the group, unless Bosnia and Herzegovina rout Qatar by a large enough margin to catch up from their current minus-3 to hold a better goal differential than Canada.
Taking first in Group B comes with significant rest that could be extremely important for the health of the team, especially star Alphonso Davies. The winner of Group B will have more than a week off before playing on Thursday, July 2 in Vancouver.
That game will feature the winner of Group B against a third-place finisher from either Group E, F, G, I, or J. The BBC’s projection model based on the standings entering play Monday, has Canada facing Belgium, who are currently third in Group G.
Group G may be the most wide-open group through two matchdays, though. Belgium have stunningly been held to two draws entering their final game against New Zealand. Egypt leads the group with four points but can still be caught ahead of their final group game against Iran, who, like Belgium, have two points. There also remains a possibility that no third-place team will emerge from the group.
The Athletic sees Iran, Egypt and Algeria, who are last in Group J entering their second game, as most likely opponents for Canada, should they find a result against Switzerland.
Placing second in Group B would place Canada on the opposite side of the schedule, putting the team on the very first day of knockout play, scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in Los Angeles against the second-place finisher in Group A.
Mexico has already clinched first in Group A and South Korea can lock up second with a draw against South Africa on Wednesday, having already secured the tiebreaker over Czechia with a 2-1 win in their opener.
South Korea reached the Round of 16 at Qatar 2022 before falling to heavyweights Brazil, 4-1.
A loss to Switzerland on Wednesday will lock in Canada’s Round of 32 schedule and opponent by the end of the night. A win or draw will leave Canada resting and awaiting their opponent until group round play ends across the tournament.
