Matchday 3 has arrived at the FIFA World Cup and Canada has its chance to not only advance, but win their group for the first time in history.
Entering Wednesday’s match against Switzerland, Canada sits atop Group B on plus-6 goal differential and will clinch the top spot with a win or draw. A loss would likely drop the team to second in the group, unless Bosnia and Herzegovina rout Qatar by a large enough margin to catch up from their current minus-3 to hold a better goal differential than Canada.
Canada has not yet clinched advancement, but there is more than a 99 per cent likelihood the team will reach the Round of 32 based off their current four points.
Taking first in Group B comes with significant rest that could be extremely important for the health of the team, especially star Alphonso Davies. The winner of Group B will have more than a week off before playing on Thursday, July 2 in Vancouver.
That game will feature the winner of Group B against a third-place finisher from either Group E, F, G, I, or J. The BBC’s projection model, based on the standings entering play Monday, has Canada facing Belgium, who are currently third in Group G.
Group G may be the most wide-open group through two matchdays, though. Belgium have stunningly been held to two draws entering their final game against New Zealand. Egypt leads the group with four points but can still be caught ahead of their final group game against Iran, who, like Belgium, have two points. There also remains a possibility that no third-place team will emerge from the group.
The Athletic sees Algeria, Iran, Egypt and Austria as the most likely opponents for Canada, should they find a result against Switzerland.
Placing second in Group B would slot Canada on the opposite side of the schedule, putting the team on the very first day of knockout play, scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET in Los Angeles against the second-place finisher in Group A.
Mexico has already clinched first in Group A and South Korea can lock up second with a draw against South Africa on Wednesday, having already secured the tiebreaker over Czechia with a 2-1 win in their opener.
South Korea reached the Round of 16 at Qatar 2022 before falling to heavyweights Brazil, 4-1.
Watch South Korea vs. South Africa LIVE on TSN, TSN.ca and the TSN app at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. ET.
The path for certain teams is already becoming clearer, with the Netherlands and Japan, for example, already aware that the winner of Group F will advance to face the team that faces second in Group C, likely either Brazil or Morocco. The second-place Group F team will face the Group C winner, leading to two potential heavyweight matches that currently project as Netherlands-Morocco and Brazil-Japan.
A loss to Switzerland on Wednesday will lock in Canada’s Round of 32 schedule and opponent by the end of the night. A win or draw will leave Canada resting and awaiting their opponent until group round play ends across the tournament.
