It’s Toronto’s mayoral byelection today and the polls open at 10 a.m.
From 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., eligible Toronto residents can cast their votes for which of the 102 mayoral candidates they want to see at the helm of city hall.
HOW AND WHERE DO I VOTE?
Residents must cast their vote in their ward.
They must bring a piece of identification with their name and Toronto address on it. Photo identification is not mandatory. Accepted identification includes anything issued by the government, bank or employer, or a bill with your name and address on it.
Your Voter Information Card will not be accepted as identification. If you received a Voter Information Card, the city recommends bringing it to your polling station as it will speed up the process.
WHO ARE THE MAIN CANDIDATES?
The almost unprecedented open race drew interest from a record 102 candidates who signed up to run.
They include a slew of politicians who have held other roles and a number of civic activists, as well as an 18-year-old and a dog, among other contenders. Of the more than 100 contenders, around seven key candidates have managed to garner enough support in the polls to get media coverage, inclusion in most debates and to be considered viable.
The leading candidates in the race are Olivia Chow, Ana Bailao, Mark Saunders, Josh Matlow, Anthony Furey, Mitzi Hunter and Brad Bradford.
WHAT DO THE LATEST POLLS SAY?
Polls by Forum Research and Mainstreet Research found that Chow remains the front-runner in the mayoral race, but that a previously commanding lead has dwindled down to single digits. Chow, who has been leading in all mayoral polls, remained the top choice for 34 per cent of decided voters surveyed in Mainstreet’s poll, and 29 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Forum’s poll.
Nine points behind her is Ana Bailao, who polled at 25 per cent according to Mainstreet and 20 per cent according to Forum. She has seen a bump in her numbers since former mayor John Tory endorsed her last Wednesday.
WHAT WILL TORONTO’S FUTURE MAYOR BE TAKING ON?
Whoever is elected Monday will inherit a city budget with a nearly $1-billion pandemic-related shortfall, driven partly by reduced transit revenue and increased shelter costs.
The next mayor will also inherit largely untested “strong mayor” powers, allowing them to pass budgets with just one-third council support, veto bylaws and unilaterally shape the city's top-level administration. Several leading candidates have vowed not to use those powers to overrule council.
WHAT KIND OF VOTER TURNOUT IS EXPECTED?
Advance polls held earlier this month saw 129,745 people cast a ballot, an increase of 14,000 over early voting in the October election.
That election saw a record-low 30 per cent voter turnout.
With so many options and no incumbent, the result could be “bizarre,” Dennis M. Pilon, associate professor of political science at York University said earlier this year.
The number of votes needed to win Toronto’s June election will depend on the number of people who decide to exercise their democratic right this year.
If voter turnout remains unchanged from last year’s, a candidate would need about 140,000 votes to snag 25 per cent of the vote – or just over seven per cent of eligible voters.
If the voter turnout more closely mirrored that of 2018's, a candidate would need just under 195,000 votes to make up 25 per cent of the vote.
A candidate could win with a voter percentage as low as 20, Pilon said.
"In this case, we could end up with somebody who was elected by like a very small [group] – it's anybody's for the winning."
WHAT ISSUES ARE TORONTO VOTERS CONCERNED ABOUT?
When polled by CP24, Toronto residents indicated they were most concerned about housing affordability.
Of 24,520 respondents, 9,354, or 38 per cent, chose housing as their top issue.
Twenty-three per cent, or just over 5,600 of those polled, answered that combatting gun violence and increasing safety was their top issue.
Thirteen per cent chose reducing traffic congestion, while 12 per cent identified holding taxation levels steady as the issue most important to them.
The two issues that garnered the least votes were increasing taxation in the name of services and making the TTC safer, respectively.
ARE PEOPLE PAYING ATTENTION?
A recent poll by CP24 that asked Toronto residents if they’ve been tuned into the election lead-up shows an almost equal split.
Of the 1661 respondents, 54 per cent said they were paying attention to the campaign trail pre-election day, while 46 per cent said they were not.
- With files from Joshua Freeman
