Toronto home prices now expected to rise 11 per cent by year end, Royal LePage says
Published Thursday, July 13, 2023 12:30PM EDT
Last Updated Thursday, July 13, 2023 1:14PM EDT
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is expected to remain mostly unchanged through the rest of the year despite the Bank of Canada’s decision to resume its interest rate hiking campaign, a new report from Royal LePage suggests.
However, the increase is mostly the result of the run-up in prices that occurred over the first two quarters of 2023 as the market rebounded from a prolonged slump.
Royal LePage says that it expects the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will be virtually unchanged over the remainder of 2023 – rising only by about $6,000 or 0.5 per cent.
“The GTA housing market continues to see strong activity across all segments, despite new listings currently sitting below levels seen during the same period last year. Buyers in the market today are educated, determined and prepared to make a purchase, but they are facing tight competition once again,” Royal Lepage’s Chief Operating Officer Karen Yolevski said in the report. “The additional interest rate hikes are causing many would-be sellers to hesitate. Our strong job market and flexibility to work remotely means most people can afford to wait it out, causing further supply shortages and multiple-offer scenarios on almost every listing.”
Royal LePage said that the aggregate cost of a GTA home was up 1.1 per cent year-over-year in the second quarter but rose 5.4 per cent when compared to the first quarter.
The firm doesn’t see that strong price appreciation continuing with the cost of borrowing now at a 22-year high.
But at the same time it is not predicting a return to the declines that took place over the course of 2022 when the average price of a Toronto home decreased by about 22 per cent from peak to trough.
“Despite the central bank’s decision to start raising interest rates again, many buyers are still in the game. Demand remains strong, particularly among those who have secured a rate hold,”
Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper said in the report. “Buyers who are determined to make a purchase this year have accepted the reality of higher initial carrying costs, rationally surmising that rates are at or near peak and will become more affordable before long.”
Royal LePage’s report suggests that the aggregate home price nationally will rise by about 8.5 per cent in 2023 to more than $821,000.