WASHINGTON - Kalshi prediction market was sued for a failure to pay out US$54 million to people who bet that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1, 2026, according to a class action lawsuit filed on Thursday.
Khamenei was killed on Saturday in U.S-Israeli strikes that left hundreds dead, including top Iranian officials. The strikes followed a months-long U.S. military build-up in the region.
Kalshi customers were drawn to the “Khamenei Market” because of the fluid geopolitical circumstances, the lawsuit said. However, the complaint added, it was not until after Iranian leader was killed that the company invoked a “death carveout” provision to avoid paying customers what they were owed.
“With an American naval armada amassed on Iran’s doorstep and military conflict not merely foreseeable but widely anticipated, consumers understood that the most likely—and in many cases the only realistic—mechanism by which an 85-year-old autocratic leader would ‘leave office’ was through his death. Defendants understood this as well,” the lawsuit said.
The language around how Khamenei would leave office was “clear, unambiguous and binary,” the lawsuit said, while describing Kalshi’s actions as “deceptive” and “predatory.”
Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California.
The company’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, on Saturday defended the company’s death carveout, saying it “keeps the rules simple.” Mansour said Kalshi would reimburse all fees from the Khamenei market.
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity since the 2024 U.S. election, when their real-time probabilities proved more accurate than polling in forecasting Donald Trump’s victory.
They offer tradable yes-or-no contracts that allow users to bet on a wide range of real-world events from sports to politics and the economy. Bet costs fluctuate between zero and 100 cents, and typically pay out when an outcome is confirmed.
Reporting by Jasper Ward in Washington, Editing by Louise Heavens.
