Prime Minister Mark Carney said he’s prepared for the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump ordering a military invasion of Canada, according to a new report.
In an interview with the New York Times published Wednesday, Carney described the prospect of an invasion as an “extreme tail risk,” meaning impactful though unlikely, but that it would be “irresponsible” not to prepare.
Earlier in the day, Trump said on Truth Social that “Canada is destroying itself by allowing millions and millions of people into the Country” who were “essentially unchecked and unvetted.”
Meanwhile, Carney spoke in New York at a so-called “pledging event” for the OceanEye observation system, funded in large part by the European Union.
Key updates:
- Carney called U.S. military action ‘extreme tail risk’
- Vietnam’s leader is in Ottawa
- Canada’s first F-35 takes flight
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Carney prepared for U.S. invasion of Canada: NYT
Carney has carefully examined the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump ordering a military invasion of Canada, according to a new report.
In an interview with The New York Times released Wednesday, Carney described the prospect as an “extreme tail risk,” a term used to describe an event that could cause enormous damage, but is very unlikely.
However, the prime minister explained that what he did was “just risk management.”
“That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare for the possibility, Carney told The Times.
Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca producer
‘Normal’ for feds to analyze ‘risk scenarios’: defence minister
Defence Minister David McGuinty commented on Carney’s New York Times comments ahead of a cabinet meeting Thursday afternoon, telling reporters it’s “normal” for federal governments and militaries to analyze “risk scenarios.”
The comments come after Carney’s New York Times’ story, in which he said he studied the possibility of U.S.-led military action in Canada.
“We’re talking about all kinds of issues around keeping North America safe, and that’s exactly what we’re doing,” McGuinty said.
“It is normal. All militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios.”
Pressed for details on what specific risk scenarios were assessed, McGuinty would not clarify.
“The prime minister also indicated that that’s the kind of detail that we would not get into. We won’t get into that,” McGuinty said.
Stephanie Ha, CTVNews.ca, ONB manager
It’s ‘prudent’ to run ‘any scenario’: AI minister
Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon was asked Thursday by CTV News chief political correspondent Vassy Kapelos to comment on Carney’s remarks that “it would be irresponsible” not to prepare for the possibility of a U.S. invasion.
Solomon responded by saying it is “prudent to run any scenario.”
“That’s the way every government functions. You run any scenario, so you’re prepared for everything. This is not abnormal to think of whatever the long-term risks of any scenario is,” he said.
But pressed by Kapelos on what those preparations could look like, Solomon would not answer directly.
“I’m not going to get into how the military prepares for any scenario,” he said.
Stephanie Ha, CTVNews.ca, ONB manager
Carney NYT comments not ‘in our favour’
Peter MacKay, former defence and foreign affairs minister, called it irresponsible for Carney to discuss preparing for a potential U.S. invasion in comments published Wednesday in The New York Times.
MacKay told CTV News Channel on Thursday, that he was confused by the prime minister’s comments which he said “takes us from the realm of retaliation to provocation.”
“What we really need to do, in my humble opinion, is to get back to the bargaining table and talk about the removal of tariffs,” he added.
MacKay said he does not understand Carney’s rationale for going down that road, “especially when tensions are so high.”
“I’m not sure what the effort was here, to perhaps play to a domestic audience, to send a message to the White House, but I don’t think it’s working in our favour.”
Joe Van Wonderen, CTVNews.ca journalist
Carney meets Vietnam leader
Carney says there will be “good news” coming for people who want to travel from Canada to Vietnam, without providing details.
Vietnamese President Tô Lâm is in Ottawa today for a meeting with the prime minister. In brief remarks Thursday, Carney said the two leaders were working on a new agreement on “people-to-people ties,” as well as energy, agriculture, and defence co-operation.
Vietnam is Canada’s largest trading partner in the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN. Canada exported $1.3 billion in merchandise to Vietnam last year and imported $19.3 billion.
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Canada’s first F-35 takes flight
Canada’s first F-35 has taken to the skies. It’s the first new model of fighter jet with Canadian markings in 44 years. But a milestone that would normally be heavily promoted, passed with barely a word from Canada’s military.
The historic first flight took place Wednesday in Fort Worth, Texas, home to Lockheed Martin’s final assembly plant.
The low-key debut comes as Ottawa’s review of the F-35 purchase continues. Canada signed on in 2023 to buy 88 of the jets, but Carney ordered a review in March 2025 amid tensions with the United States.
Canada’s first F-35s will be used to train RCAF pilots in the U.S. at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. The first jets are expected to arrive in Canada in 2028, with initial operational capability in 2029.
John Vennavally-Rao, CTV News national correspondent. Read the full story here.
Times reporter on Carney interview
Carney paused for several seconds after the Times asked him about Canada’s preparations for U.S. military action.
He “clearly reflected very, very carefully on what he wanted to say,” said the newspaper’s Canada Bureau Chief Matina Stevis-Gridneff, the article’s lead reporter.
When Carney said he had examined it out of a sense of responsibility, “I think everyone around the table understood what he meant,” Stevis-Gridneff told CTV Your Morning.
She and her colleagues asked him for specifics on what sort of actions Canada had taken to prepare, but Carney refused to do so, Stevis-Gridneff also said.
“He did not use the word ‘invasion’ to be clear, that was our word.”
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Risk management plan is ‘prudent’
CTV News U.S. political analyst Eric Ham said Carney was being “prudent” in considering the unlikely scenario of the U.S. taking military action against Canada.
“We know what the United States has done in Venezuela,” Ham said from Washington, adding that tensions around U.S. control of Greenland also grew to a fever pitch earlier this year.
Tom Mulcair, another political analyst and former leader of the federal NDP, said risk management of this kind is part of the job for a prime minister.
“It’s not because someone imagined it in some vague committee on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. It’s because Donald Trump said he was going to try to make Canada the 51st state.”
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Trump has called Canada action ‘highly unlikely’
Back in May 2025, Trump was asked if he would consider sending the military into Canada.
“I think we’re not going to ever get to that point,” Trump told CBS News.
“Something could happen with Greenland. I’ll be honest, we need that for national and international security.”
“But I think it’s highly unlikely,” he also said. “I don’t see it with Canada. I just don’t see it, I have to be honest with you.”
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Canada aims to reduce reliance on U.S.: Carney
In the interview with The New York Times, Carney said Canada was looking into expanding its economic ties with China and reducing both its military and technological reliance on the United States, including Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite systems.
The prime minister also told the Times that in the future, with a different U.S. president, “we will be a better partner for the U.S. because of what we are doing.”
Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca producer
Canada still reviewing F-35 fighter jet order: Carney
The prime minister also discussed Canada’s review of its planned order of 88 U.S. F-35 fighter jets, and the potential of instead buying Sweden’s Saab Gripen fighters.
“It is a real decision because of differing capabilities, because of strategic dependencies, and because of the economic return,” Carney said.
Canada has already committed to buying 16 of the American F-35 fighter jets to replace the country’s aging fleet of CF-18 Hornets, but Carney ordered a review of the contract for the remaining 72 aircraft after Trump first announced tariffs on Canadian goods early last year.
Earlier this month, Defence Minister David McGuinty said Ottawa was assessing all available options.
Tammy Ibrahimpoor, CTVNews.ca producer
With files from Todd Coyne, CTVNewsVancouver.ca journalist
Would Carney run again?
In a separate article published by the New York Times, the prime minister also shed light on some domestic political questions.
Of note, Carney indicated he’s considering running for a second term, if the work he’s doing during his first is not complete, according to the newspaper.
“It’s too early to start asking” he said, referencing whether he would run again. “My value as a member of my party is to hit on the big things and move forward. And then, at the end of that, you see how much has got done, and if something else needs to be done.”
The prime minister, noting he has a majority government, said he’s aware a lot of what he’s committed to will take another year and a half to two years to yield results Canadians would feel, such as the development of major infrastructure and energy projects. His description of this was that it would be “beyond” the current political cycle.
Rachel Aiello, CTV News Ottawa Bureau correspondent
Judge orders access for news outlets
A federal judge temporarily blocked Trump’s ban of three news outlets from the White House, ordering early Thursday that CNN, MS NOW and Politico must have their access restored. Reporters from all three outlets, however, said they remained blocked a few hours after the ruling.
The back-and-forth is the latest in an extraordinary showdown between Trump and media outlets whose coverage he dislikes.
Trump first announced he was banning the outlets Friday, assailing what he called “fake news,” and only later arguing that their reporting was a risk to national security. The outlets argued in a joint lawsuit that the ban was a blatant violation of the First Amendment because it singled them out for the content of their coverage.
In his late-night ruling, U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly ordered the White House to “immediately return, reinstate, and restore” the three outlets’ access.
The Associated Press
Reporters still without access
Reporters for CNN, MS NOW and Politico said they were still blocked early Thursday, a few hours after the order was made.
The Associated Press
Here’s what happened on Sept. 23, 2026:
Canada ‘destroying itself’
Trump says, “Canada is destroying itself by allowing millions and millions of people into the Country.”
He made the statement on his Truth Social platform Wednesday morning, accusing Canada of allowing people in who are “essentially unchecked and unvetted” and ”causing problems that will soon be too big to handle.”
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Trump talks Canadian unemployment
In Trump’s post, he mentioned what he called Canada’s “big” unemployment rate.
“It is a Liberal takeover that will end up very badly,” he said. “Already showing up in their numbers. Big unemployment.”
Canada’s unemployment rate was 6.4 per cent in August, according to the most recent labour survey from Statistics Canada.
That’s more than two percentage points above the U.S. reported unemployment rate, which was 4.1 per cent in August. However, the two countries calculate unemployment differently. For example, Canada considers people who are not working because of family responsibilities as unemployed, but the U.S. does not.
A TD study released in the fall of 2025 predicted the unemployment rate would have been at least one point higher if population growth had not been slowed.
Unemployment is impacted by a number of factors, not limited to immigration. For example, Statistics Canada noted accelerated employment losses in trade-dependent industries following Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods.
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Data contradict Trump immigration claims
As U.S. President Donald Trump says Canada is “destroying itself” with its immigration policies, new data from Statistics Canada show the number of newcomers is going down.
According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s population rose slightly by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, while immigration is down 4.2 per cent year-over-year, and the number of non-permanent residents is down 0.7 per cent.
The Canadian government under former prime minister Justin Trudeau pledged to cut its immigration targets following years of criticism that they were putting too much pressure on the housing market and other sectors.
In Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget in late 2025, the Liberals set new targets, promising to “responsibly manage immigration to alleviate pressures on housing demand.”
Immigration levels in Canada reached a record high in 2024. According to the federal government, 483,640 immigrants were admitted as permanent residents that year, which was in line with targets set out in the Government of Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan at the time. In 2025, that number dropped to about 393,500 new permanent residents.
Spencer Van Dyk, CTV News writer & producer
Anand responds to Trump
Asked to respond to Trump’s comments, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said that, while immigration overall has improved “Canadian prosperity,” the federal government reduced immigration intake in 2024.
“We are stabilizing immigration levels,” she said Wednesday, adding Ottawa moved to reduce levels to ensure accessibility to affordable housing and health care.
Canada plans to reduce temporary resident volumes to five per cent by the end of 2027.
Overall permanent resident admissions are projected to stabilize at 380,000 from 2026 to 2028, with a preference on offering status to migrants who are already in Canada with “needed skills and experience.”
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
No more Trump Avenue
A street in Canada’s capital bearing the name of the current U.S. president will be renamed.
Ottawa city council unanimously agreed to a motion to begin the process of renaming Trump Avenue, in Ottawa’s Central Park neighbourhood.
Trump Avenue is one of several streets in Central Park that references New York City. Other street names include Madison Park, Manhattan Crescent, Bloomingdale Street, and Staten Street.
At the time of the neighbourhood’s development, Trump was a famous real estate mogul, but his tumultuous time as president of the United States has led to renewed calls to take his name off street signs in the capital.
Ted Raymond, CTVNewsOttawa.ca journalist.
Carney talks bilateral collaboration
Carney, who is co-hosting the OceanEye event, says the meeting is in the same spirit as his trip to Strasbourg last week, where talk of Canada’s associate EU membership made headlines worldwide.
Today, he said, is all about what “nations coming together” can accomplish. He did not mention the United States in his opening remarks.
He said Canada is committing $82 million to the ocean observation program, which he characterized as an imperative step for the country with the world’s longest coastline.
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Canada to protect more lands and waters
Carney said Canada plans to send autonomous underwater gliders on months-long assignments to monitor activity under the Arctic ice.
“We can’t protect what we can’t see,” he said, adding Ottawa plans to expand protected lands and waters to two-million-square kilometres by the end of the decade.
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Carney to appear with EU leader
Carney will speak at the OceanEye International Alliance event at 10 a.m. EDT. The OceanEye initiative aims to build capacity for marine observance, which the European Commission says is associated with a market worth up to C$32 billion.
“This serves a much larger business ecosystem worth EUR 40 to 90 billion, in which the United States holds the largest share,” reads a statement from the commission published earlier this year.
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist. Read the full story here.
Diana Fox Carney is Canada’s Ocean Envoy
Diana Fox Carney, who’s married to Mark Carney, is Canada’s Ocean Envoy. She was named to the unpaid position in mid-September.
“In this role, Mme. Fox Carney will advance Canada’s leadership by connecting ocean conservation, climate action, Indigenous leadership, economic resilience and maritime security,” reads a release announcing her appointment.
Fox Carney, an economist and sustainability advisor, holds master’s degrees in agricultural economics from the University of Oxford and in international relations from the University of Pennsylvania.
Luca Caruso-Moro, CTVNews.ca journalist
Here’s what happened on Sept. 22, 2026:
India’s Modi to visit Canada: Carney
Carney confirmed on Tuesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting Canada in December.
The news was first reported by the Globe and Mail on Tuesday, citing India’s High Commissioner to Canada, who says Modi will be visiting to sign a trade deal between the two countries.
“We are making good progress in our trade negotiations with India,” Carney said, before confirming Modi’s mid-December visit to Canada.
“It is an exceptionally important relationship on many, many levels.”
Modi’s last trip to Canada was in June 2025, when he attended the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Alta.
The visit raised eyebrows at the time because of the previously strained relationship between Canada and India.
The two countries had been at odds since 2023, when the federal government first levelled allegations of both foreign interference and transnational repression, including crimes such as murder and extortion.
At the time, talks toward a free-trade agreement — which had been underway for years — were indefinitely put on pause, and not picked up again until Carney became prime minister.
Spencer Van Dyk, CTV News writer & producer
Carney reacts to Trump’s Belarus potash deal
Carney touched on Canada’s potash industry, after Trump revealed on Monday that the U.S. plans to buy cheaper product from Belarus.
“My message to the Canadian potash industry is one of admiration,” Carney said to reporters at the UN. “Canada supplies 40 per cent of the world’s potash. It is an incredible strength of our economy.”
Carney affirmed that Canadian potash would continue to be in demand around the world due to Canada being a reliable, cost-competitive supplier.
The prime minister also said Canada will continue to be the largest supplier of potash to the U.S. and expressed that now is an opportunity for Canada and its neighbours to co-operate and “become fertilizer independent.”
“So not just potash, but across all ammonia and other fertilizers, that would be good for Canadian farmers,” he said.
“It’d be great for American farmers, and it’s an opportunity we’re prepared to explore.”
Kayla Thompson, CTVNews.ca journalist
U.S. to continue buying Canadian potash: Trump
Trump says his country will continue buying Canadian potash after all.
Trump made the comments to reporters during a bilateral meeting at the United Nations General Assembly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Belarus has a lot of potash, and our farmers need good prices, and we want to get a lower price,” Trump told reporters Tuesday when asked about the proposed deal.
“We’ll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price.”
The Canadian Press. Read the full article here.
